Protected-area targets could be undermined by climate change-driven shifts in ecoregions and biomes

Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Littlefield, Caitlin E.; Lyons, Drew S.; Hollenberg, Clark; Carroll, Carlos; Parks, Sean A.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Gage, Josh

doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00270-z

Cited by 67 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…This ambitious target—increased from 17% terrestrial coverage in the 2020 targets—reflects a general recognition that well-managed protected areas (PAs) are, and will continue to be, the cornerstone of global biodiversity conservation. At the same time, it is also increasingly recognized that the fixed position of PAs makes them vulnerable to the impacts of climate change 2 – 4 . Despite this vulnerability, there is evidence that PAs can act as a buffer against some of the detrimental effects of climate change 5 and that PAs and PA systems can be managed in ways that reduce these impacts 6 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability to climate change of species in protected areas in Thailand

Pomoim

Hughes

Trisurat

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Although 23% of Thailand’s land is in protected areas, these are vulnerable to climate change. We used spatial distribution modelling for 866 vertebrate and 591 plant species to understand potential climate change impacts on species in protected areas. Most mammals, birds, and plants were projected to decline by 2070, but most amphibians and reptiles were projected to increase. By 2070 under RCP8.5, 54% of modeled species will be threatened and 11 nationally extinct. However, SDMs are sensitive to truncation of the climate space currently occupied by habitat loss and hunting, and apparent truncation by data limitations. In Thailand, lowland forest clearance has biased records for forest-dependent species to cooler uplands (> 250 m a.s.l.) and hunting has confined larger vertebrates to well-protected areas. In contrast, available data is biased towards lowland non-forest taxa for amphibians and reptiles. Niche truncation may therefore have resulted in overestimation of vulnerability for some mammal and plant species, while data limitations have likely led to underestimation of the threat to forest-dependent amphibians and reptiles. In view of the certainty of climate change but the many uncertainties regarding biological responses, we recommend regular, long-term monitoring of species and communities to detect early signals of climate change impacts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability to climate change of species in protected areas in Thailand

Pomoim

Hughes

Trisurat

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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“…It is currently uncertain whether additional data for species missing from current SDM analysis will shed further light on a significant relationship between range and protection, which is seen elsewhere [12]. Additionally, the great advantage of SDMs is the ability to predict future distributions and threats regarding changes in species' potential range, which assist planning for a sustainable conservation strategy in the face of a changing climate [13,84].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…International biodiversity initiatives have consistently featured various targets that relate to a percentage of land designated for protection (e.g., Aichi Biodiversity Targets [11]). Although nations have met, or, in Diversity 2021, 13, 624 2 of 15 some cases, exceeded these targets, the continued decline in biodiversity over the past few decades has cast some skepticism over their overall effectiveness [12][13][14][15]. Historically, the reasoning behind the establishment of PAs focused on areas that were remote or "wild", their aesthetics and/or sole use of natural resources [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Effective Conservation of Charismatic Flora: Orchids in Armenia as a Case Study

2021

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Plants are the bedrock of life on Earth but are increasingly threatened with extinction. The most cost-effective way of conserving plant diversity is through Protected Areas (PAs). However, the locality, size, and management of PAs are crucial for effectively maintaining diversity and have been criticized as currently inadequate. Using Armenia as our study site and orchids as our study taxa, we sought to (1) identify spatial patterns of orchid diversity hotspots and corresponding PA network sites; (2) examine if the current PA network is effective at capturing orchid species richness and diversity and (3) explore the relationship between the range of area suitability of species and level of protection. We used data collected from herbarium, field visits and GBIF occurrence records. Using freely available mapping software, we created heatmaps of observations and species richness. We compared PA sites based on the number of species (species richness) and diversity (Shannon–Weiner Index). Species range was developed using the MaxEnt model and a correlation analysis was performed against the proportion of the range within PA. We found that 57% of PA sites have a representation of at least one species of orchid, but some threatened species are not presented within any PA site. The Tavush and Syunik province not only held the highest species richness (>10 species), but the PA network within also held high orchid diversity (2.5 diversity index value for Dilijan National Park). We did not find a significant relationship between the range of area suitability for orchids and protection; however, all our target species had less than 30% of their range under protection. Our study highlights important challenges related to the limitations of available data, and we discuss these implications towards effective conservation outcomes for orchids for the region.

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“…Protected areas serve as an essential tool for conserving biodiversity (Gray et al 2016, Pacifici et al 2020. However, their efficacy in a changing climate is increasingly being questioned (Elsen et al 2020, Dobrowski et al 2021. Protected area boundaries are static and yet the organisms they protect will need to move as they shift their ranges in response to a warming climate (Hannah et al 2007, McGuire et al 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficacy of the global protected area network is threatened by disappearing climates and potential transboundary range shifts

Parks

Holsinger

Littlefield

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Protected areas are essential to conserving biodiversity, yet changing climatic conditions challenge their efficacy. For example, novel and disappearing climates within the protected area network indicate that extant species may not have suitable climate in protected areas in the future. Further, potential transboundary range shifts, those that involve movement from one country to another, are also challenging because physical (e.g. fencing) and non-physical barriers (e.g. contrasting conservation policies) may impede climate-induced movements. Through the lens of climate analogs, we examined disappearing and novel climates within the global terrestrial protected area network and the potential for transboundary range shifts among protected areas under global warming 2 °C above preindustrial levels. We found that globally, climates in 24% of protected lands will no longer be protected within a 500 km radius of their focal location (indicating disappearing climates within the protected area network), while 36% of protected lands will gain climates not previously protected (indicating novel climates within the protected area network). Further, we found that potential transboundary range shifts are widespread but variable; for example, 23% of protected climates in Europe and >50% of protected climates in Africa under climate change are located in a different country than the focal protected areas. As the global conservation community actively deliberates conservation frameworks (e.g. 30% by 2030), our study offers insights to reduce the prevalence of novel and disappearing climates within the global protected area network via strategic conservation actions and underscores the importance of setting and accommodating targets and strategies that transcend national boundaries.

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Protected-area targets could be undermined by climate change-driven shifts in ecoregions and biomes

Cited by 67 publications

References 78 publications

Vulnerability to climate change of species in protected areas in Thailand

Vulnerability to climate change of species in protected areas in Thailand

Exploring Effective Conservation of Charismatic Flora: Orchids in Armenia as a Case Study

Efficacy of the global protected area network is threatened by disappearing climates and potential transboundary range shifts

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