Background
Prostate cancer (PCa) molecular subtypes have been defined by essentially mutually exclusive events, including ETS gene fusions (most commonly involving ERG) and SPINK1 over-expression. Clinical assessment may aid in disease stratification, complementing available prognostic tests.
Objective
To determine the analytical validity and clinicopatholgical associations of microarray-based molecular subtyping.
Design, Setting and Participants
We analyzed Affymetrix GeneChip expression profiles for 1,577 patients from eight radical prostatectomy (RP) cohorts, including 1,351 cases assessed using the Decipher prognostic assay (performed in a CLIA-certified laboratory). A microarray-based (m-) random forest ERG classification model was trained and validated. Outlier expression analysis was used to predict other mutually exclusive non-ERG ETS gene rearrangements (ETS+) or SPINK1 over-expression (SPINK1+).
Outcome Measurements
Associations with clinical features and outcomes by multivariable logistic regression analysis and receiver operating curves.
Results and Limitations
The m-ERG classifier showed 95% accuracy in an independent validation subset (n=155 samples). Across cohorts, 45%, 9%, 8% and 38% of PCa were classified as m-ERG+, m-ETS+, m-SPINK1+, and triple negative (m-ERG−/m-ETS−/m-SPINK1−), respectively. Gene expression profiling supports three underlying molecularly defined groups (m-ERG+, m-ETS+ and m-SPINK1+/triple negative). On multivariable analysis, m-ERG+ tumors were associated with lower preoperative serum PSA and Gleason scores, but enriched for extraprostatic extension (p<0.001). m-ETS+ tumors were associated with seminal vesicle invasion (p=0.01), while m-SPINK1+/triple negative tumors had higher Gleason scores and were more frequent in Black/African American patients (p<0.001). Clinical outcomes were not significantly different between subtypes.
Conclusions
A clinically available prognostic test (Decipher) can also assess PCa molecular subtypes, obviating the need for additional testing. Clinicopathological differences were found among subtypes based on global expression patterns.