Prospects of Using Tree-Ring Earlywood and Latewood Width for Reconstruction of Crops Yield on Example of South Siberia

Abstract

Improvement of dendrochronological crops yield reconstruction by separate application of earlywood and latewood width chronologies succeeded in rain-fed semiarid region. (1) Background: Tree-ring width chronologies have been successfully applied for crops yield reconstruction models. We propose application of separated earlywood and latewood width chronologies as possible predictors improving the fitness of reconstruction models. (2) Methods: The generalized yield series of main crops (spring wheat, spring barley, oats) were investigated in rain-fed and irrigated areas in semiarid steppes of South Siberia. Chronologies of earlywood, latewood, and total ring width of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing in forest-steppe in the middle of the study area were tested as predictors of yield reconstruction models. (3) Results: In the rain-fed territory, separation of earlywood and latewood allowed increasing variation of yield explained by reconstruction model from 17.4 to 20.5%, whereas total climatic-driven component of variation was 41.5%. However, both tree-ring based models explained only 7.7% of yield variation in the irrigated territory (climate inclusion increased it to 34.8%). Low temperature sensitivity of larch growth was the main limitation of the model. A 240-year (1780–2019) history of crop failures and yield variation dynamics were estimated from the actual data and the best reconstruction model. (4) Conclusions: Presently in the study region, breeding of the environment-resistant crops varieties compensates the increase of temperature in the yield dynamics, preventing severe harvest losses. Tree-ring based reconstructions may help to understand and forecast response of the crops to the climatic variability, and also the probability of crop failures, particularly in the rain-fed territories.

Unstable State of Hydrologic Regime and Grain Yields in Northern Kazakhstan Estimated with Tree-Ring Proxies

“…The RMSE estimates the normally distributed errors, which once again points to the high quality of the reconstructions. The explained variance of the SKO grain yields in our model (47%) is very similar to other tree ring calibrated models from the forest steppe environments of South Siberia and northern China [27,28], although tree ring models from extremely dry environments like the arid land of North Africa may have 74% of explained variance for precipitation influencing the wheat yields [24]. This indicates the high potential of tree-ring proxies for modeling crop yields in the breadbaskets of Inner Eurasia, where tree-ring networks are available [48].…”

“…The mixed climatic signal retained by both temperature and precipitation variations is important for highlighting the matching impact of soil moisture on the pine tree ring proxies and grain crops. The tree rings and grain crops from other regions of Inner Eurasia showed similar correlation patterns with the climate [26][27][28].…”

“…Agriculture 2024, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 17 precipitation variations is important for highlighting the matching impact of soil moisture on the pine tree ring proxies and grain crops. The tree rings and grain crops from other regions of Inner Eurasia showed similar correlation patterns with the climate [26][27][28]. The climate response of the grain group related to the phenology of spring wheat, barley, and oats in SKO, although these correlations are not detailed, due to the lack of individual crop statistics and the low-resolution monthly climate data that we used.…”

“…In dendrochronology, the relationship between the hydrologic regime (specifically droughts) and crop yields has been recognized from the very early association of tree ring growth with the climate [21,22]. Surprisingly, up to now there are very few well-calibrated reconstruction models for the yields of corn, rye, and wheat from Central America, North Africa, Fennoscandia, South Siberia, and China [23][24][25][26][27][28].…”

Geographical variation in cool and warm season responses of earlywood and latewood tree‐ring chronologies in Athrotaxis selaginoides

“…Elsewhere, separate EW and LW chronologies of various parameters have been exploited to extract hydroclimate and/or temperature signals from different parts of the growing season (Miina et al 2000; Stahle et al 2009; Griffin et al 2011; An et al 2012; Faulstich et al 2013; Crawford et al 2015; Carrillo et al 2016; Torbenson et al 2016; Carlón‐Allende et al 2018; Acosta‐Hernandez et al 2020; Cao et al 2020; Cabral‐Alemán; Thomte et al 2022). These EW and LW chronologies have also been used to improve estimates of crop yield (Babushkina et al 2021; Stambaugh et al 2021).…”