Prospects of Forage Production in Northern Regions under Climate and Land-Use Changes: A Case-Study of a Dairy Farm in Newfoundland, Canada

Abstract

Forage production in northern latitudes is challenging and uncertain in the future. In this case-study, the integrated farm system model (IFSM) was used to assess the impact of climate change and cropland expansion scenarios on forage production in a dairy farm in Newfoundland, Canada. Climatic projections indicated increases in temperature in the recent past (1990–2016) and under any future climate (2020–2079), thus enhancing agronomic performance. Temperature increases ranged from 2.8 °C to 5.4 °C in winter and from 3.2 °C to 6.4 °C in spring. Small precipitation increases (<10%) create narrower time windows to perform farm operations in the already stringent condition of excess moisture in the region. Results of land use scenarios including expansions of 20, 30, and 40% in cropland area, out of which 5% was dedicated to corn silage and the remainder to grass-legume mixtures, indicated increased yield and total production. Improvements in grass-legume yield ranged from 8% to 52%. The full range of production increases ranged from 11% to 105%. Increments in corn silage yield ranged from 28% to 69%. Total farm corn silage production increases ranged from 29% to 77%. An attainable cropland expansion of 20% would enable the farm to become self-sufficient in forage production under any climate scenario.

Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation in Temperate Grazing Systems: A Review

“…In North American grasslands, increased temperatures are predicted to extend the growing season but with a corresponding decline in quality of forage (e.g., lower plant protein and digestible carbohydrates). Simulations indicated [69] that pasture production may increase by 5−15% by mid-century in northern regions due to longer growing seasons and more harvests per year. However, warmer temperatures and more intense storms could lead to greater nutrient losses to the environment.…”

Boreal Agriculture Cannot Be Sustainable Without Food Sovereignty

“…A closer look at the study area illuminates patterns that should be avoided, and cautious optimism about future agricultural expansion. Corn, legume, dairy and livestock production is projected to increase in the study region (Cordeiro et al, 2019) and in many parts of the global boreal belt (King et al, 2018) due to rising temperatures associated with global climate change. Intensifying agricultural production in these regions without damaging the boreal forests could improve chronic food insecurity and environmental sustainability (Godfray et al, 2010).…”

“…If agricultural production expands within Newfoundland and Labrador as predicted (King et al, 2018;Cordeiro et al, 2019), residents will ostensibly become less reliant upon imported food. To put this into practice, locally grown food needs to be locally processed and distributed, rather than exported.…”

Carbon Footprint Assessment of Spanish Dairy Cattle Farms: Effectiveness of Dietary and Farm Management Practices as a Mitigation Strategy

“…The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) is a process-based mechanistic whole-farm simulation model that incorporates soil processes, crop growth, tillage, planting and harvest operations, feed storage, feeding, herd production, manure storage, and economics [12]. The IFSM was originally used in dairy farms in the United States [13] and successfully adapted to be used in dairy farms in Australia and Canada [14,15].…”