Prospects in Vanilla (Vanilla planifolia Andrews) production in Mexico in relation to temperature fluctuations

Abstract

Objective: To establish a time series model correlating vanilla production with temperature variation to forecast vanilla production in Mexico.Design/methodology/approach: Data on vanilla production in Mexico (Tons) and the annual average temperature were obtained for the period 1985-2020. An ARIMA model was constructed; Granger causality test was conducted to determine the effect of temperature on vanilla production, in addition to evaluating the orthogonal response of the model. A forecast for vanilla production was made for the period 2020-2040.Results: ARIMA (1,1,1) model was found, and the influence of temperature on vanilla production was determined. Both thermal variation and the production of the last three years determine current production. A reduction in the quantity of tons of vanilla produced in the coming years is expected. It is considered that this cultivation is highly sensitive to sudden increases or decreases in temperature.Limitations on study/implications: Vanilla cultivation is sensitive to temperature variation; therefore, in the face of climate change, it is considered necessary to take a series of actions in the present. These actions encompass a genetic perspective, new cultivation methods and locations, as well as technological investment.Findings/conclusions: Vanilla production is influenced by temperature variation and is sensitive to sudden increases or declines. If actions are not taken in the present, a reduction in the national production of vanilla in Mexico is expected due to climate change.