Prospects in Vanilla (Vanilla planifolia Andrews) production in Mexico in relation to temperature fluctuations
José M. Barreda-Castillo,
Rebeca Menchaca
Abstract:Objective: To establish a time series model correlating vanilla production with temperature variation to forecast vanilla production in Mexico.Design/methodology/approach: Data on vanilla production in Mexico (Tons) and the annual average temperature were obtained for the period 1985-2020. An ARIMA model was constructed; Granger causality test was conducted to determine the effect of temperature on vanilla production, in addition to evaluating the orthogonal response of the model. A forecast for vanilla produc… Show more
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