Prospective scenarios of the saltwater intrusion in an estuary under climate change context using Bayesian neural networks

Assessment of the vulnerability of a coastal freshwater system to climatic and non-climatic changes: A system dynamics approach

“…Changes in seasonal precipitation and sea level rise are expected to affect water supply (Ross et al, 2015), whereas other climatic factors such as changing temperatures could plausibly affect supply and demand simultaneously (Dawadi & Ahmad, 2013). Altered seasonal precipitation patterns and rising sea levels can therefore be expected to significantly influence the dynamics and complexity of managing coastal freshwater systems, often via impacts on patterns of river flows as well as the frequency, duration and extent of marinederived saline water penetration in estuaries (Etemad-Shahidi et al, 2015;Zhou et al, 2017).…”

“…These results are consistent with other studies which apply different methods in related settings. Zhou et al (2017), for instance, applied Bayesian neural networks to investigate the relationships between streamflow, sea level and tidal level on salinity intrusion in the Pearl River in China, also finding that upstream flow decline led to a decrease in water level and an increase in salinity. Similarly, Etemad-Shahidi et al 2015, applying a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model to understand the interactions between sea level rise and tidal level on salinity in Bahmanshir estuary in Iran, also identified the significance of upstream flow reductions driven by climate change through a gradual decrease in precipitation.…”

“…Although hydrodynamic models and Bayesian neural networks can predict more precisely the impacts of sea level rise and upstream flow decline on water level and salinity (Etemad-Shahidi et al, 2015;Zhou et al, 2017), the modeling approach presented here offers several advantages for the planning and management of water resource systems. In this study, regression models were combined with SD models to help decision-makers investigate future interactions among influential factors beyond the limits of available data.…”

“…Water supply is particularly affected by climate variability and climate change with sea level rise, and altered precipitation regimes (IPCC, 2013) influencing temporal and spatial patterns of river discharge, water levels and saltwater penetration along estuaries (Nguyen et al, 2008). Changes to upstream flow regimes, for instance, can have a substantial impact on regional water resource and seasonal water supplies in downstream areas (Zhou et al, 2017). Rising salinity levels in rivers due to both sea level rise and declines in upstream flows can degrade surface water supplies and impair the agricultural, industrial and urban systems which rely on them (Nguyen & Umeyama, 2011).…”

Desalinization and Salinization: A Review of Major Challenges for Coastal Reservoirs

“…More generally, any process leading to the aforementioned imbalance in hydraulic heads will result in intrusion of seawater into the reservoir and thus increased salinity of the reservoir water. Along with exploitation of groundwater, seawater intrusion can occur due to changes of land utilization and associated water use, climate change, and sea-level fluctuations (Svensson and Theander, 2013;Vu, Yamada, and Ishidaira, 2018;Zhou et al, 2017). Seawater intrusion tends to intensify during dry periods when the reservoir water level is low, as shown in Figure 1b.…”