Prospective Dynamic Assessment of Risk of Sexual Reoffending in Individuals with an Intellectual Disability and a History of Sexual Offending Behaviour

Abstract

Results suggest that dynamic variables are useful in predicting sexual reoffending with individuals with an intellectual disability, confirming previous findings. The ARMIDILO-S is a promising dynamic risk assessment for individuals with an intellectual disability.

How do static and dynamic risk factors work together to predict violent behaviour among offenders with an intellectual disability?

“…There is no established cut‐off score for the SDRS (V. Quinsey, personal communication, 7 September 2010). To select an appropriate cut point to dichotomise the variable into a prediction of likely or unlikely to be involved in a violent incident, we used data generated in another study (Lofthouse et al ., in press) of a dynamic risk assessment tool [The Assessment of Risk and Manageability for IndividuaLs who Offend Sexually (ARMIDILO‐S); Boer et al . ] designed specifically for ID offenders.…”

“…; Blacker et al . ; Lofthouse et al ., in press). Therefore, dynamic risk assessment and powerful tool in assisting risk prediction for this population, and, at times, may be better than static risk assessment.…”

Implications of our developing understanding of risk and protective factors in the treatment of adult male sexual offenders.

“…This review draws on the wider literature on protective factors and desistance, as well as findings with specific measures of protective factors intended for use with sexual offenders. The following is based on de Vries Robbé et al 2013, but also takes into account findings from research with ARMIDILO, a risk assessment instrument developed for the evaluation of sexual risk in persons who have intellectual disabilities (Blacker, Beech, Wilcox, & Boer, 2011;Lofthouse et al, 2013). From these sources, positive factors, both personal and environmental, that have been related to reduced recidivism when assessed in an actively dynamic way, are extracted and summarized below under five headings.…”

Improving Practices of Risk Assessment and Intervention Planning for Persons with Intellectual Disabilities Who Sexually Offend

“…Lofthouse et al () were able to show that ARMIDILO‐S performed better than well‐regarded static offender risk assessment tools such as the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Static‐99. Another study is currently investigating the concurrent validity of ARMIDILO‐S with other tools that are designed for non‐ID offenders (Cookman, ).…”