BACKGROUND:The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) and a subset of oral cavity cancer (OCC) is increasing in the United States. To the authors' knowledge, the presumed growing prevalence of survivors of OPC and OCC has not been investigated to date. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of End Results data (1975-2012) estimated changes in incidence, 5-year cause-specific survival, and prevalence for OPC and OCC. Changes in incidence, cause-specific survival and prevalence were estimated by linear regression and expressed as the percentage change (B). Differences in incidence trends over time were determined by joinpoint analysis. RESULTS: The incidence of OPC increased by 62.6% from 1975 through 2012. Notable increases in OPC incidence were observed among men, white individuals, and those of younger ages. The 5-year survival for OPC increased significantly for all sexes, races, and individuals aged >30 years, with white individuals and males experiencing the largest increase in survival. By contrast, the incidence of OCC declined by 22.3% during the same time period. OCC incidence decreased across all groups but increased among individuals aged 30 to 39 years. Significant increases in survival were observed for OCC, except for those who were female, black, and aged <40 years. The prevalence of survivors of OPC increased from 2000 to 2012 (B, 115.1 per 100,000 individuals per year; P<.0001), whereas the prevalence of survivors of OCC significantly decreased (B, 215.8 per 100,000 individuals per year; P<.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of survivors of OPC is increasing, whereas the prevalence of survivors of OCC is declining. These data portend significant implications for long-term care planning for survivors of OPC and OCC. Cancer 2016;122:1380-7. V C 2016 American Cancer Society.KEYWORDS: human papillomavirus, oral cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, survivors.
INTRODUCTIONPopulation-based studies in the United States and developed countries have reported significant increases in oral squamous cell cancer (OSCC), which includes oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) and oral cavity cancer (OCC). 1 The epidemiologic shifts in OSCC have been attributed primarily to the increasing incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related OPC. 2 Indeed, the incidence of OPC in the United States is projected to surpass that of cervical cancer and is responsible for the largest burden of HPV-related malignancy in men. 2 Patients with OPC are characteristically young and have a good prognosis. [3][4][5][6][7][8][9] Although the incidence of OCC overall is declining in the United States, 10 the incidence among young females has increased dramatically in recent decades, the etiology of which is poorly understood and does not appear to be related to HPV infection. 11-15 Improvements in survival have been limited to individuals treated with radiotherapy. 16 It is interesting to note that a shift in the treatment paradigm from single modality (surgery or radiotherapy) in the mid-1970s to primary surgery with or without radiotherapy in the late 199...