Prospect theory based estimation of drivers’ risk attitudes in route choice behaviors

Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2014.08.004

Cited by 55 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…first studied the parameters using Certainty Equivalent (CE) and obtained the original parameters estimation results of α � β � 0.88, λ � 2.25, c � 0.61, and δ � 0.69. For several decades, a large number of researchers applied the estimation results on the study of travel route choice [7,9,10], mode choice [11][12][13], departure time, and network equilibrium [14][15][16].…”

Section: Parameters Estimation Of Cpt Kahneman and Tverskymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sequential Route Choice Modeling Based on Dynamic Reference Points and Its Empirical Study

Long

Hou

Liu

et al. 2020

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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Aiming at the influence of information, we investigate and analyze the sequential route choice behavior under dynamic reference points based on cumulative prospect theory in this paper. An experiment platform collecting the sequential route choices based on C/S structure is designed and four types of information are released to participants, respectively. Real-time travel time prediction methods are then proposed for travelers' decision-making. Using nonlinear regression method, the parameters of the value function and weight function of cumulative prospect theory are estimated under different types of information, respectively. It is found that travelers' behavior showed obvious characteristic of risk pursuit under the circumstance where real-time travel time information is released. Instead, when they have access to descriptive information, they tend to be more conservative.Hindawi

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Section: Parameters Estimation Of Cpt Kahneman and Tverskymentioning

confidence: 99%

Sequential Route Choice Modeling Based on Dynamic Reference Points and Its Empirical Study

Long

Hou

Liu

et al. 2020

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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“…To highlight the importance of decision makers' psychological behavior and different emergency situations that need to be dealt with by devising different solutions, several important studies in the literature are notable that are related to our research (Fan et al 2012;Shu 2012;Liu et al 2014;Zhou et al 2014;Qian et al 2015;Wang et al 2015;Yu et al 2015). These studies have addressed EDM problems from different aspects.…”

Section: Prospect Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, they dealt with the EDM problems by considering only one situation to select the best alternative. Shu (2012), Zhou et al (2014), Qian et al (2015), and Yu et al (2015) considered the problems regarding different situations in EDM but neglected decision makers' psychological behavior in the decision making process. (1) Framework definition: the notations and terminology used in the proposed method are defined.…”

Section: Prospect Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prospect theory, proposed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), is regarded as the most influential behavior theory to describe decision makers' psychological behavior under risk and uncertainty. It has been studied (Schmidt and Zank 2008;Bleichrodt et al 2009) and widely applied to solve various decision making problems when considering decision makers' psychological behavior, such as in multi-attribute decision making (Fan et al 2013), traffic management (Li 2013;Zhou et al 2014), emergency decision making (Wang et al 2015(Wang et al , 2017, and portfolio insurance (Dichtl and Drobetz 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Emergency Decision Making Method Based on Prospect Theory for Different Emergency Situations

Zhang

Wang

2018

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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Emergency decision making (EDM) is an effective way to deal with emergency situations because of its prominent role in alleviating the losses of properties and lives caused by emergency events. It has drawn increasing attention from both governments and academia, and become an important research topic in recent years. Studies show that decision makers are usually guided by bounded rationality under risk and uncertainty conditions. Their psychological behavior plays an important role in the decision making process, and EDM problems are usually characterized by high risk and uncertainty. Thus, decision makers' psychological behavior has been considered in existing EDM approaches based on prospect theory. An emergency event might evolve into different situations due to its dynamic evolution, which is one of the distinctive features of emergency events. This important issue has been discussed in existing EDM approaches, in which different emergency situations are dealt with by devising different solutions. However, existing EDM approaches do not consider decision makers' psychological behavior together with the different emergency situations and the different solutions. Motivated by such limitation, this study proposed a novel approach based on prospect theory considering emergency situations, which considers not only decision makers' psychological behavior, but also different emergency situations in the EDM process. Two examples and related comparison are provided to illustrate the feasibility and validity of this approach.

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“…Traveler evaluates the routes by individual experience, cognition, and attitudes which do not be considered in the EUT and RUT models. Hence, many alternative theories are proposed, for example, prospect theory (PT), 16,17 cumulative prospect theory (CPT), 18,19 rankdependent expected theory, 20,21 regret theory, 22,23 behavioral portfolio theory 24,25 and so on. Due to the prevalence in choice behavior, bounded rationality has been studied extensively in economics and psychology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Considering dynamic knowledge updating in bounded rationality–based route choice modeling

Jiang

2017

Advances in Mechanical Engineering

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To study the effect of en-route information on driver's route choice behavior, a dynamic route choice modeling approach is proposed, which takes the driver's knowledge updating process into consideration. A Bayesian network is developed to describe the en-route travel time updating process. Within the framework of the cumulative prospect theory, a choice model is conducted to analyze the driver's route choice behavior at each decision node. A numerical example is carried out to illustrate the application of the dynamic route choice modeling approach. The result demonstrates that the route choice behavior considering en-route information is a dynamic process. The traditional route choice model based on cumulative prospect theory without considering en-route information is also employed as a reference in the experiment. From the comparison, the dynamic route choice modeling approach in which a driver's knowledge of making en-route decisions is taken into account has a better goodness of fit. A stated preference survey is carried out to investigate drivers' route choice behaviors under different traffic scenario. The result indicates that the proposed approach could provide a more accurate description to driver's route choice behavior under the conditions of uncertainty.

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Prospect theory based estimation of drivers’ risk attitudes in route choice behaviors

Cited by 55 publications

References 41 publications

Sequential Route Choice Modeling Based on Dynamic Reference Points and Its Empirical Study

Sequential Route Choice Modeling Based on Dynamic Reference Points and Its Empirical Study

An Emergency Decision Making Method Based on Prospect Theory for Different Emergency Situations

Considering dynamic knowledge updating in bounded rationality–based route choice modeling

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