44th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit 2006
DOI: 10.2514/6.2006-1177
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Proposed Approach for Estimating Launch Vehicle Explosive Risk

Abstract: The explosive risk for launch vehicles is relatively small, but a crucial factor for sizing a crewed abort system. This study proposes an assessment process for explosive risk and expected blast yields that can be used with Probabilistic Risk Assessment tools like SAPHIRE. A fault tree for propulsion system explosive risk is developed along with the corresponding explosive yield models for the proposed faults. The Apollo launch system is used as an example to illustrate this type of approach. The proposed expl… Show more

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“…The model was run for each class of booster using a 10% fuel to TNT conversion factor. This TNT equivalence represents a worst case [11] and is included as a bounding scenario. Only the liquid fuel contributed to the TNT equivalence for each configuration.…”
Section: Figure 4: Relative Risk Due To Fragments Resulting From a Comentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The model was run for each class of booster using a 10% fuel to TNT conversion factor. This TNT equivalence represents a worst case [11] and is included as a bounding scenario. Only the liquid fuel contributed to the TNT equivalence for each configuration.…”
Section: Figure 4: Relative Risk Due To Fragments Resulting From a Comentioning
confidence: 99%