Proposals for working out the Russian segment of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Dangerous Weather Phenomena in Tbilisi and Associated Climate Risks

“…Climate risk is a combination of the likelihood and consequences of a hazardous or adverse event occurring. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of a particular meteorological hazard by the conditional probability of the vulnerability of the recipient who may be exposed to this hazard (Kobysheva et al, 2015): R = pU (1) where: p is the probability of an event; U -the consequences of an event or the vulnerability of an object exposed to a hazardous phenomenon, which is determined by the formula:…”

“…The general formula of social risk or the likelihood of injury to a particular recipient is as follows (Kobysheva et al, 2008;Kobysheva et al, 2015):…”

“…The cumulative damage in a given area is called economic risk. Economic risk is the product of the probability of a meteorological hazard by the amount of damage; expressed in monetary units (Kobysheva et al, 2008;Kobysheva et al, 2015): Re = ARс (4) where A is the share of gross domestic product per day per inhabitant of a given administrative region. The article discusses the weather phenomena that create emergency situations in the city:…”

“…The materials of observations of the Tbilisi Hydrometeorological Observatory for the period 1961-2020 were used. All calculations were performed in accordance with the methods developed under the guidance of Kobysheva (Kobysheva et al, 2008;Kobysheva et al, 2015). The aggressiveness coefficients of the phenomena are determined in accordance with (Kobysheva et al, 2015), and the areas of influence of this phenomenon are taken from our previous studies (Elizbarashvili et al, 2013;Elizbarashvili et al, 2012;Varazanashvili et al, 2012).…”

“…According to the catalog compiled by us at the Institute of Hydrometeorology of Georgia, material damage from strong winds on November 16-17, 1961 amounted to USD 2 million, and on March 4, 1973, damage from a hurricane wind in the Tbilisi-Bolnisi region amounted to USD 5 million. The intense heat and drought caused damage to the city of Tbilisi and its regions in April-May 1997, 20 million, in May 2000-150 million, and in June 2001 To mitigate the expected negative consequences of hazardous phenomena and unfavorable weather conditions, the associated potential risks should be assessed and compared with the value of the permissible risk and then decisions on adaptation should be made (Kobysheva et al, 2015). This article presents the results of a study of the most typical hazardous weather phenomena and assesses the climatic risks they create in the city of Tbilisi, the most important industrial, social and cultural center of the Caucasus.…”