Proportional Variation of Potential Groundwater Recharge as a Result of Climate Change and Land-Use: A Study Case in Mexico

Abstract

This work proposes a methodology whereby the selection of hydrologic and land-use cover change (LUCC) models allows an assessment of the proportional variation in potential groundwater recharge (PGR) due to both land-use cover change (LUCC) and some climate change scenarios for 2050. The simulation of PGR was made through a distributed model, based on empirical methods and the forecasting of LUCC stemming from a supervised classification with remote sensing techniques, both inside a Geographic Information System. Once the supervised classification was made, a Markov-based model was developed to predict LUCC to 2050. The method was applied in Acapulco, an important tourism center for Mexico. From 1986 to 2017, the urban area increased 5%, and by 2050 was predicted to cover 16%. In this period, a loss of 7 million m3 of PGR was assumed to be caused by the estimated LUCC. From 2017 to 2050, this loss is expected to increase between 73 and 273 million m3 depending on the considered climate change scenario, which is the equivalent amount necessary for satisfying the water needs of 6 million inhabitants. Therefore, modeling the variation in groundwater recharge can be an important tool for identifying water vulnerability, through both climate and land-use change.

Establishment of the Baseline for the IWRM in the Ecuadorian Andean Basins: Land Use Change, Water Recharge, Meteorological Forecast and Hydrological Modeling

“…Similar to what was performed by [7,42], following the same conditions used in the 2009-2017 projection, the land use map for the year 2029 was generated, based on the 2009 and 2019 maps. The 2019 classified map containing LULC is called Scenario (1), and the 2029 projected map containing LULC is called Scenario (2).…”

“…Changes and distribution of land use have an important influence on natural processes in a basin [1,2]. Water recharge, for example, shows sensitivity to different coverage due to the different infiltration rates that can occur under the same precipitation conditions [6,7], which is the reason why a change or alteration must be analyzed to evaluate its consequences. That is why water recharge was estimated in order to evaluate the effects that LUCC would have on it.…”

Spatiotemporal Oasis Land Use/Cover Changes and Impacts on Groundwater Resources in the Central Plain of the Shiyang River Basin

“…Therefore, in the LUCC plans that have been established by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP), one core problem is in understanding the impacts of regional land-use and land-cover changes on hydrological processes and water resources [14]. The impact of LUCC-induced changes in regional vegetation ecosystems on the regional hydrological cycle processes [15][16][17] has been an important research topic in hydrological science for more than 20 years and has become an issue of global importance [16,18]. Groundwater is usually the most important resource in arid regions, especially for socio-economic development, and is the best choice for a reliable water supply.…”

Vadose zone modeling to identify controls on groundwater recharge in an unconfined granular aquifer in a cold and humid environment with different meteorological data sources

“…Sustainable groundwater management has also been addressed in cold and humid climates where GR is often considered to be abundant and non-limiting (i.e., Dripps et al 2007;Rivard et al 2014;Boumaiza et al 2020). However, even when water is abundant overall, increased temperatures due to climate change may trigger increased evapotranspiration rates during the summer when water needs are the greatest (e.g., agriculture and recreational activities) and this can have large impacts on groundwater renewal rates (Turkeltaub et al 2015;Saha et al 2017;Guerrero-Morales et al 2020).…”