Background:
Identifying reliable predictors of long-term weight loss could lead to improved weight management.
Objective:
To identify predictors.
Design:
The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) was a randomized controlled trial that compared weight loss using placebo, intensive lifestyle intervention, or metformin, and its Outcomes Study (DPPOS) observed patients after the masked treatment phase ended.
Setting:
27 DPP/DPPOS clinics.
Participants:
Of the 3234 randomized participants, 1066 lost ≥ 5% of their baseline weight during the first year and have been followed for 15 years.
Measurements:
Treatment assignment, personal characteristics, and weight.
Results:
After 1 year, 289 (28.5%) metformin participants, 640 (62.6%) intensive lifestyle participants, and 137 (13.4%) placebo participants, achieved ≥ 5% weight loss. After the masked treatment phase ended, the mean (95% CI) amount of weight loss relative to baseline that was maintained between years 6 and 15 was 6.2% (5.2, 7.2) for metformin participants, 3.7% (3.1, 4.4) for intensive lifestyle participants, and 2.8% (1.3, 4.4) for placebo participants. Independent predictors of long-term weight loss included greater weight loss during the first year in all study groups, older age and continued use of metformin in the metformin group, older age and not having diabetes or a family history of diabetes in the intensive lifestyle group, and higher baseline fasting plasma glucose in the placebo group.
Limitation:
Post-hoc analysis. Nonrandomized subsets of randomized groups examined after year 1.
Conclusion:
Among those with ≥ 5% 1-year weight loss, the group originally randomized to metformin had the greatest success with weight loss during years 6–15. Older age and the amount of initial weight loss were the most consistent predictors for maintaining long-term weight loss.
Primary Funding Source:
National Institutes of Health.
Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov
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