Property cycles

Grover, Richard; Grover, Chris

doi:10.1108/jpif-05-2013-0030

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The pre-war shophouses sale transaction volumes movements as depicted in Figure 2 represents its complete cycle. As Richard Grover and Christine Grover (2013) stated that the persistence property cycle in four (4) stylized form which passing through of recovery, prosperity, recession and depression, reflection of sinusoidal waves of boom and bust behavior in the market and influenced by macroeconomic, microeconomic, finance and management factors (Grenadier, 1995;Kamarudin, Ismail, Mohd Ali, Sipan, & Raji, 2014). Source: Valuation andProperty Services Department, 2004-H1 2017) On the contrary, investigation of pre-war shophouses price and price per square foot and evidence of its movements/trend as exhibits in Figure 3 and 4 suggests that the heritage property market in four areas of study were generally able to sustain its previous high price and upward trends within the period under studied.…”

Section: Discussion and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Ascertaining the Economic Sustainability of Heritage Property Market based on Sales Transaction Analysis

Zin

Ismail

Azmi

2018

E-BPJ

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Increasing trend in property transactions can be used as an indicator of economic sustainability of an area. This paper analyses the transaction volumes and prices of pre-war shophouses in four historical areas in Malaysia in order to ascertain the state of economic sustainability of the heritage property markets. Secondary data for 2004 until 2017 were obtained from governmental sources and descriptive statistical analysis was undertaken. The results show evidence of increasing trend in the price per square foot for the shophouses in all the areas suggesting that there is economic sustainability of the heritage property markets in Malaysia.

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Section: Discussion and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Ascertaining the Economic Sustainability of Heritage Property Market based on Sales Transaction Analysis

Zin

Ismail

Azmi

2018

E-BPJ

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“…Grover and Grover (2013) look at the property cycles modelling techniques employed over the last century. As in the case of Wheaton above, they provide a definition of a property cycle and note that markets differ with respect to the cyclic activity, with some cycling because of endogenous stimulation, while others showing fluctuations due to weak adjustment mechanisms to exogenous impulses.…”

Section: Literature Review – Propertymentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristic points of Auckland commercial property cycles

Szweizer¹

2019

JPIF

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to expand our understanding of processes governing commercial property cycles, and to provide tools, which enable identification of property cycles’ turning points’ location. Design/methodology/approach This paper is divided into three parts. The first looks at the demand-supply dynamics and the location of two characteristic cyclic points, the market bottom and the cycle commencement. In the second part a property relevant formula for entropy is derived, and its relation to the cycle overheated stage and the market peak is studied. In the third part, we discuss still another characteristic point of the cycle, which relates to the stage when developers elect to undertake new projects. This analysis is done by employing the chaos theory, and its relation to the cyclic evolution. Findings It is found that some markets cycle, while others fluctuate only. A clear method for distinguishing among these is provided. The bottom of a cycle may overlap or be time separated from the start of a subsequent cycle. Market peaks are characterised by a sharp decrease in financial component to entropy for top quality building grades. A cycling market is characterised by crossing of a distinct vacancy rate during the cycle progression. Practical implications The tools developed in the paper allow for clear characterisation of the market types and their cyclic behaviour. This in turn allows for timely characterisation of the market state and for short time-frame forecasting. The depth of a cycle may be calculated and the subsequent correction level estimated. Originality/value The paper utilises cross-field approach by taking methods from both physics and mathematics and applying them to property markets. It breaks new ground both in property research and in applied mathematics by showing how the current frontier in pure mathematics may be applied to property.

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“…the nature, development, and reasons behind property cycles have been researched for more than a century (Mangoldt 1907;Hoyt 1933;Hakfoort 1992;rIcS 1993;Barras 2009;reed, Wu 2010;grover, r., grover, c. 2013, 2014. according to rottke and Wernecke (2002: 3) 'in the uS research on property cycles began as early as the 1930s (...) the number of publications rose rapidly at the beginning of the 1980s (…) up to now in the uS and the uK, cycle research papers have increased enormously both in terms of quantity and quality'.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Century of research on property cycles: a literature review

Jadevicius

Sloan

Brown

2017

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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The existence of cycles in building and property, has grown to have significant importance in the uK and internationally; whereas property markets have been characterised by boom and bust cycles with a negative impact on the national economies. as a result, property cycles became a popular research topic amongst property professionals and scholars, with a greater understanding of the cyclical behaviour of the property market being seen as a major guide to the financial success (failure) of property investments. consequently, considerable literature has accumulated over the years on the subject. this paper provides a review of this literature, mostly written in the uK and uS, with international insights on the subject. this paper reviews research on the subject chronologically over a one hundred-year period. the study is designed to provide readers with a historical overview of Property cycles research by emphasising the underlying theme which dominated a particular period of this research, as well as indicating methods, data analysis techniques employed and outcomes of these studies. Its ai is to put more clarity on the subject, as well as help to navigate anyone interested in Property cycles through a considerable amount of research which has accumulated over the last century.

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Property cycles

Cited by 20 publications

References 29 publications

Ascertaining the Economic Sustainability of Heritage Property Market based on Sales Transaction Analysis

Ascertaining the Economic Sustainability of Heritage Property Market based on Sales Transaction Analysis

Characteristic points of Auckland commercial property cycles

Century of research on property cycles: a literature review

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