Propagation of future climate conditions into hydrologic response from coastal southern California watersheds

Feng, Dongmei; Beighley, R. Edward; Raoufi, R.; Mélack, John M.; Zhao, Yan; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R.

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02371-3

Cited by 22 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Based on the availability of streamflow data, the calibration period was 1984-2013. Six parameters governing lateral and vertical transport and surface runoff generation processes were calibrated (the definition and description of these parameters can be found in Feng et al, 2019). During calibration, thousands of parameter sets are randomly selected from predefined parameter ranges.…”

Section: Watershed Runoff Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

Myers

Barnard

Beighley

et al. 2019

Ocean & Coastal Management

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Incorporating coastal ecosystems in climate adaptation planning is needed to maintain the well-being of both natural and human systems. Our vulnerability study uses a multidisciplinary approach to evaluate climate change vulnerability of an urbanized coastal community that could serve as a model approach for communities worldwide, particularly in similar Mediterranean climates. We synthesize projected changes in climate, coastal erosion and flooding, watershed runoff and impacts to two important coastal ecosystems, sandy beaches and coastal salt marshes. Using downscaled climate models along with other regional models, we find that temperature, extreme heat events, and sea level are expected to increase in the future, along with more intense rainfall events, despite a negligible change in annual rainfall. Consequently, more droughts are expected but the magnitude of larger flood events will increase. Associated with the continuing rise of mean sea level, extreme coastal water levels will occur with increasingly greater magnitudes and frequency. Severe flooding will occur for both natural (wetlands, beaches) and built environments (airport, harbor, freeway, and residential areas). Adaptation actions can reduce the impact of rising sea level, which will cause losses of sandy beach zones and salt marsh habitats that support the highest biodiversity in these ecosystems, including regionally rare and endangered species, with substantial impacts occurring by 2050. Providing for inland transgression of coastal habitats, effective sediment management, reduced beach grooming and removal of shoreline armoring are adaptations that would help maintain coastal ecosystems and the beneficial services they provide.

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Section: Watershed Runoff Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

Myers

Barnard

Beighley

et al. 2019

Ocean & Coastal Management

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“…The soil is divided into 2 layers: upper layer (0.6 m) and lower 232 layer (2.6 m). The soil thickness data is determined based on a previous study (Feng et al, 2019). 233…”

Section: Data 133mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Streamflow is essential to humans and ecosystems, supporting human's life and economic 33 activities, providing habitat for aquatic creatures, and exporting sediment/nutrients to coastal 34 ecosystems (Feng et al, 2016; Barnett et al, 2005;Milly et al, 2005). Understanding streamflow 35 characteristics is important for water-resources management, civil infrastructure design and 36 making adaptation strategies for economic and ecological practices (Feng et al, 2019). With 37 economic development and population growth, the emission of greenhouse gas is likely to increase 38 during 21 st century (IPCC, 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Identifying uncertainties in simulated streamflow from hydrologic model components for climate change impact assessments

Feng¹,

Beighley²

2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrologic systems is critical for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for water resource management, risk control and ecosystem conservation practices. Such assessments are commonly accomplished using outputs from a hydrologic model forced with future precipitation and temperature projections. The algorithms used in the hydrologic model components (e.g., runoff generation) can introduce significant uncertainties in the simulated hydrologic variables, yet the identification and quantification of such uncertainties is rarely studied. Here, a modeling framework is developed that integrates multiple runoff generation algorithms with a routing model and associated parameter optimizations. This framework is able to identify uncertainties from both hydrologic model components and climate forcings as well as associated parameterization. Three fundamentally different runoff generation approaches: runoff coefficient method (RCM, conceptual), variable infiltration capacity (VIC, physically-based, infiltration excess) and simple-TOPMODEL (STP, physically-based, saturation excess), are coupled with Hillslope River Routing model to simulate streamflow. A case study conducted in Santa Barbara County, California, reveals that the median changes are 1–10 % increases in mean annual discharge (Qm) and 10–40 % increases in annual maximum daily discharge (Qp) and 100-yr flood discharge (Q100). The Bayesian Model Averaging analysis indicates that the probability of increase in streamflow can be up to 85 %. However, the simulated discharge uncertainties are large (i.e., 230 % for Qm and 330 % for Qp and Q100) with general circulation models (GCMs) and emission scenarios accounting for more than half of the total uncertainty. Hydrologic process models contribute 10–30 % of the total uncertainty, while uncertainty due to hydrologic model parameterization is almost negligible (

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“…Also, (Mallakpour et al 2018) showed that while the annual average daily discharge is projected to remain unchanged over California, the magnitude of the annual maximum daily discharge is projected to increase significantly by the end of this century. For coastal southern California, (Feng et al 2019) projected that 100-year flood magnitude could increase up to 185% due to global warming.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the exposure of California’s levee-protected critical infrastructure to flooding hazard in a warming climate

Mallakpour

Sadegh

AghaKouchak

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Levee systems are an important part of California's water infrastructure, engineered to provide resilience against flooding and reduce flood losses. The growth in California is partly associated with costly infrastructure developments that led to population expansion in the levee protected areas. Therefore, potential changes in the flood hazard could have significant socioeconomic consequences over levee protected areas, especially in the face of a changing climate. In this study, we examine the possible impacts of a warming climate on flood hazard over levee protected land in California. We use gridded maximum daily runoff from global circulation models (GCMs) that represent a wide range of variability among the climate projections, and are recommended by the California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment Report, to investigate possible climate-induced changes. We also quantify the exposure of several critical infrastructure protected by the levee systems (e.g. roads, electric power transmission lines, natural gas pipelines, petroleum pipelines, and railroads) to flooding. Our results provide a detailed picture of change in flood risk for different levees and the potential societal consequences (e.g. exposure of people and critical infrastructure). Levee systems in the northern part of the Central Valley and coastal counties of Southern California are likely to observe the highest increase in flood hazard relative to the past. The most evident change is projected for the northern region of the Central Valley, including Butte, Glenn, Yuba, Sutter, Sacramento, and San Joaquin counties. In the leveed regions of these counties, based on the model simulations of the future, the historical 100-year runoff can potentially increase up to threefold under RCP8.5. We argue that levee operation and maintenance along with emergency preparation plans should take into account the changes in frequencies and intensities of flood hazard in a changing climate to ensure safety of levee systems and their protected infrastructure.

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Propagation of future climate conditions into hydrologic response from coastal southern California watersheds

Cited by 22 publications

References 53 publications

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

Identifying uncertainties in simulated streamflow from hydrologic model components for climate change impact assessments

Changes in the exposure of California’s levee-protected critical infrastructure to flooding hazard in a warming climate

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