Propaganda, Alternative Media, and Accountability in Fragile Democracies

Abstract

We develop a model of electoral accountability in the presence of mainstream and alternative media outlets. In addition to standard high and low competence types, the incumbent may be an aspiring autocrat, who controls the mainstream media and will cause substantial harm if not removed from office. Alternative media can help voters identify and remove aspiring autocrats and can enable voters to focus on honest mainstream media assessments of incumbents' competence. But malicious alternative media that peddle false conspiracy theories about the incumbent and the mainstream media can induce voters to mistakenly remove nonautocratic incumbents, which in turn demotivates incumbent effort and undermines accountability. The alternative media is most beneficial when it is honest and known to be honest. It is most dangerous when it is sufficiently credible that voters pay attention to it, but sufficiently likely to be malicious that it undermines accountability.Many countries inhabit a grey area between democracy and autocracy-their leaders are elected, but may act to eliminate institutional checks on their power. One check that aspiring autocrats seek to remove is the media, which can be induced, by a combination of censorship, ownership, and corruption, to refrain from criticism and act as a propaganda vehicle. Recent examples of rulers who have taken this approach include Turkey's Erdogan, Hungary's Orban, Venezuela's Chávez and Maduro, and Peru's Fujimori.Citizens who are unsure about their leaders' intentions and the mainstream media's independence may turn to alternative media: opposition television and newspapers, the internet and social media, or foreign news providers. However, alternative media may themselves be