Promoting farsighted decisions via episodic future thinking: A meta-analysis.

Abstract

This preprint has not yet been peer-reviewed.Episodic future thinking (EFT) denotes our capacity to imagine prospective events. It has been suggested to promote farsighted decisions that entail a trade-off between short-term versus longterm gains. Here, we meta-analyze the evidence for the impact of EFT on such intertemporal choices that have monetary or health-relevant consequences. Across 174 effect sizes from 48 articles, a three-level model yielded a medium-sized effect of g = 0.44, 95% CI [0.33, 0.55]. Notably, this analysis included a substantial number of unpublished experiments, and the effect remained significant following further adjustments for remaining publication bias. We exploited the observed heterogeneity to determine critical core components that moderate the impact of EFT. Specifically, the effect was stronger when the imagined events were positive, more vivid, and related to the delayed choice. We further obtained evidence for the contribution of the episodicity and future-orientedness of EFT. These results indicate that the impact of EFT cannot simply be accounted for by other modes of prospection (e.g., semantic future thinking). Of note, EFT had a greater impact in samples characterized by choice impulsivity (e.g., in obesity), suggesting that EFT can ameliorate maladaptive decision making. It may accordingly constitute a beneficial intervention for individuals who tend to make myopic decisions. Our analyses moreover indicated that the effect is unlikely to merely reflect demand characteristics. This meta-analysis thus highlights the potential of EFT in promoting long-term goals, a finding that extends from the laboratory to real-life decisions.

Imagining emotional events benefits future-oriented decisions

“…Indeed, a recent meta-analysis likewise suggests that demand characteristics do not play a role in the effect of episodic future thinking on delay discounting (Rösch et al, 2021). In the present study, we observed little evidence for the involvement of demand characteristics, namely that participants were able to guess the correct study hypothesis (see Table S5).…”

Trial‐wise exposure to visual emotional cues increases physiological arousal but not temporal discounting

“…Various studies observed increased TD following negative emotional priming (Guan et al, 2015; Lerner et al, 2013; Moore et al, 1976)—findings that correspond to the idea that experiencing emotional distress might foster desire for immediate pleasure and reward (Tice et al, 2001). Other studies report that positive stimuli, imagining positive future events or a positive mood state, can reduce discounting (Guan et al, 2015; Liu et al, 2013; Rösch et al, 2021; Weafer et al, 2013). Although these findings do not remain unchallenged (Luo et al, 2014; Simmank et al, 2015), they might support the notion of opposing valence‐driven cue effects on TD.…”

“…The format of time and reward information directly influences choice behavior (Lempert et al, 2016). TD is attenuated when delays are expressed in terms of the date of reward delivery (Read et al, 2005), when future rewards are paired with participant‐specific episodic cues (Bromberg et al, 2017; Peters & Büchel, 2010; Rösch et al, 2021) or when reward amounts are increased (Green et al, 1997).…”

The Influence of Episodic Future Thinking and Graphic Warning Labels on Delay Discounting and Cigarette Demand

“…It is possible that results similar to those reported here may exist in unpublished datasets, resulting in a “file drawer” effect that would indirectly inflate the robustness of these manipulations by assuring that only statistically significant demonstrations of these effects advanced to publication (cf. [ 28 ]). Importantly, if the effect of EFT is as sensitive to subtle procedural characteristics as the present experiments suggest, it raises the question as to whether the effect could hold under the far more complex conditions where decisions to smoke (or engage in other unhealthy behaviors) occur.…”

“…Stein et al [ 26 , 27 ] found EFT manipulations were moderately associated with lower rates of monetary delay discounting and less demand for cigarettes as measured through self-administration and simulated purchasing. Indeed, recent reviews and meta-analyses highlight EFT as a generally reliable means of altering decisions involving an intrinsic tradeoff with the future [ 22 , 28 ].…”