Projections of the shifting envelope of Water cycle variability

Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yu, Lingxue; Amini, Sara; Crowell, Anne D; Elders, Akiko; Wu, Jie

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1634-0

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…7)-thus in the PNW, drying may increase temperature variability more than in already-arid regions like the southwestern US 29 . In accordance with recent research demonstrating the emergence of heat-amplifying land-atmosphere feedbacks in regions not historically experiencing them 28 and, moreover, model projections of mid-21stcentury soil moisture regime shifts over widespread land areas including the PNW 33 , we suggest that the 2021 heatwave may represent an alarming manifestation of a shifting regime across much of the PNW from wet to transitional climate, making such events more likely through strengthened soil moisture-temperature coupling-however, further research is required to substantiate this.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Land areas follow two distinct regimes of soil moisture-temperature interaction: areas where soil moisture is too high or too low for its variability to affect evapotranspiration, versus "transitional" climate areas, between wet and dry, where soil moisture variability dominantly affects evapotranspiration and therefore temperature 29 . The central US is a noted transitional-climate hotspot of strong soil moisture-temperature coupling 29,30 , but although the presently-wet PNW is projected to dry due to warming [31][32][33] , and aridification of other wet regions has been implicated in amplifying summer temperature variability (e.g. central Europe 34 ), the PNW has not garnered similar focus on land-atmosphere contributions to its temperature variability and their potential changes.…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2021 North American Heatwave Amplified by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions

Bartusek¹,

Kornhuber²,

Ting³

2022

Preprint

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Extreme heat conditions in the North American Pacific Northwest in summer 2021 exceeded prior heatwaves by a margin many would have considered impossible under current climate conditions. Associated severe impacts highlight the need to understand its physical drivers and relations to climate change, to improve projection and prediction of future extreme heat events. Using observational data and a model experiment, we find that slow- and fast-moving components of the atmospheric circulation, along with soil moisture deficiency, interacted to trigger this 5-sigma event. Land-atmosphere feedbacks drove nonlinear amplification of its temperature anomaly by 40%, catalyzed by multidecadal temperature and soil moisture trends. Over four decades of gradual warming, the event’s temperature anomaly has become 10–100 times more likely, transforming from a ~10,000-year to a 100–1,000-year occurrence. Its likelihood continues to increase, roughly exponentially, and it is projected to recur ~20-yearly by 2060 assuming unmitigated warming at a constant rate.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

2021 North American Heatwave Amplified by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions

Bartusek¹,

Kornhuber²,

Ting³

2022

Preprint

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“…for the associated hydrological frequency analysis. Future climate predictions suggest that the range of hydrologic variability over many locations may move completely outside the historical ranges (Dirmeyer et al 2016a).…”

Section: Recent Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroclimatic Variability and Predictability: A Survey of Recent Research

Koster¹,

Betts²,

Dirmeyer³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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This is a somewhat unusual but useful format for a scientific paper, as explained by the authors: not intented as an extensive review of the dynamic field of research in hydrometeorological predictions, but an instructive topical description of some relevant aspects of the scientific field, illustrated by studies which were presented at Eric Woods honor symposium. The body of the paper is well written an well structured, but the degree to which the selected studies are self-explanatory varies somewhat at could be improved (see detailed comments below). Some figures showed very interesting results (8, 10, 11). Detailed comments C1

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“…The strong coupling, which is well known to occur in semiarid regions (Koster et al., 2004), thereby shifts and extends to humid regions (Seneviratne et al., 2006). Such land‐surface regime shifts may become more frequent and pronounced in the future (Dirmeyer et al., 2016); warming temperatures increase the evaporative demand which can lead to drier soils, independent of trends in precipitation. Overall, this highlights the key role of soils and vegetation for near‐surface climate: while they might amplify the atmospheric climate change signal by intensifying hot extremes and the depletion of water resources (Orth & Destouni, 2018), smart management of them can alleviate changes at regional scales (Davin et al., 2014; Destouni et al., 2013; Teuling et al., 2010; Thiery et al., 2020).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

When the Land Surface Shifts Gears

Orth

2021

AGU Advances

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Northern Europe is typically characterized by wet conditions, where the total evaporation and transpiration (together, "evapotranspiration") largely depend on atmospheric energy supply. Dirmeyer et al. (2021) report that in the hot and dry summer of 2018 evapotranspiration became water-limited such that decreased evaporative cooling amplified the heatwave temperatures. This way, drought magnitude increased beyond a critical point with consequent disruptions in ecosystem services.The land surface provides essential ecosystem services for society. Soils and vegetation take up atmospheric CO 2 (Heimann & Reichstein, 2008), their moisture can attenuate wildfires (Forkel et al., 2019, O.S., Hou, et al., 2020, and their evaporative cooling can mitigate hot temperatures (Seneviratne et al., 2012). These services depend on the meteorological conditions; high radiation and low rainfall can induce water stress in ecosystems and consequently limit their services (Figure 1). In semiarid regions experiencing dry seasons such as Central North America and Southern Europe, the lack of water supply limits evapotranspiration, a condition known as water limitation (Mueller & Seneviratne, 2012). This is usually not the case for northern Europe, where normally wet and cloudy weather creates conditions where evaporation rates are limited by energy supply. ORTH

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Projections of the shifting envelope of Water cycle variability

Cited by 13 publications

References 22 publications

2021 North American Heatwave Amplified by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions

2021 North American Heatwave Amplified by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions

Hydroclimatic Variability and Predictability: A Survey of Recent Research

When the Land Surface Shifts Gears

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