Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

Martínez-Solanas, Èrica; Quijal-Zamorano, Marcos; Achebak, Hicham; Petrova, Desislava; Robine, Jean‐Marie; Herrmann, Françoís; Rodó, Xavier; Ballester, Joan

doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00150-9

Cited by 71 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…A point often overlooked is that climate change may be beneficial for some countries characterized by temperate climate, since milder winters may lead to a decrease in human mortality, while in low-latitude countries upcoming hotter and drier conditions may result in mosquito elimination [ 11 ]. However, based on future projections, albeit cold-related mortality will decrease, heat-related mortality will exceed the reduction in cold-related mortality [ 12 ]. Thus, there is no compensation of the decrease in cold-related mortality, since heat-related mortality is projected to increase more [ 13 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, an analysis conducted among the elderly (people over 65 years old) in 2015 in Italy [ 29 ], demonstrates that winter mortality exceeds summer mortality. In a more recent study [ 12 ], the future effects of climate change on temperature-attributable mortality across 147 regions in 16 European countries are quantified. The study concludes that concerning mortality, cold is ten-fold more harmful than heat [ 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a more recent study [ 12 ], the future effects of climate change on temperature-attributable mortality across 147 regions in 16 European countries are quantified. The study concludes that concerning mortality, cold is ten-fold more harmful than heat [ 12 ]. However, in the second half of the 21st century, heat fraction will exceed cold fraction resulting in more deaths due to rising temperatures [ 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study concludes that concerning mortality, cold is ten-fold more harmful than heat [ 12 ]. However, in the second half of the 21st century, heat fraction will exceed cold fraction resulting in more deaths due to rising temperatures [ 12 ]. In an analysis conducted in a larger scale, the relationship between temperature and mortality was analyzed in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions [ 30 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mortality Related to Air Temperature in European Cities, Based on Threshold Regression Models

Dimitriadou

Nastos

Eleftheratos

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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There is a wealth of scientific literature that scrutinizes the relationship between mortality and temperature. The aim of this paper is to identify the nexus between temperature and three different causes of mortality (i.e., cardiological, respiratory, and cardiorespiratory) for three countries (Scotland, Spain, and Greece) and eleven cities (i.e., Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville, Zaragoza, Attica, and Thessaloniki), emphasizing the differences among these cities and comparing them to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship. To quantify the association between temperature and mortality, temperature thresholds are defined for each city using a robust statistical analysis, namely threshold regression analysis. In a more detailed perspective, the threshold used is called Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT), the temperature above or below which mortality is at minimum risk. Afterward, these thresholds are compared based on the geographical coordinates of each city. Our findings show that concerning all-causes of mortality under examination, the cities with higher latitude have lower temperature thresholds compared to the cities with lower latitude. The inclusion of the relationship between mortality and temperature in the array of upcoming climate change implications is critical since future climatic scenarios show an overall increase in the ambient temperature.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Mortality Related to Air Temperature in European Cities, Based on Threshold Regression Models

Dimitriadou

Nastos

Eleftheratos

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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“…The majority of studies focus on mortality and have assessed the burden of past events (Vicedo-Cabrera et al, 2016;Ragettli et al, 2017;Lay et al, 2021;Vicedo-Cabrera et al, 2021). But recent studies have also projected future changes in temperature-related mortality due to climate change (Martínez-Solanas et al, 2021;Gasparrini et al, 2017;Vicedo-Cabrera et al, 2016;Huber et al, 2020). On the topic of labour productivity, studies have mainly explored the potential impact of climate change from a global to regional perspective based on general circulation models (Kjellstrom et al, 2018;Casanueva et al, 2020;Orlov et al, 2019;Dasgupta et al, 2021;Shayegh et al, 2020;Zhang and Shindell, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland

Stalhandske

Nesa

Zumwald

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Extreme temperatures have reached unprecedented levels in many regions of the globe due to climate change, and a further increase is expected. Besides other consequences, high temperatures increase the mortality risk and severely affect the labour productivity of workers. We perform a high-resolution spatial analysis to assess the impacts of heat on mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland and project their development under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, considering that no socio-economic changes take place. The model is based on the risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which combines the three risk components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We model the two impact categories in the same spatially explicit framework, and we integrate uncertainties into the analysis by a Monte Carlo simulation. We model first that about 658 deaths are associated with heat exposure currently each year in Switzerland. Second, the economic costs caused by losses in labour productivity amount to around CHF 665 million (approx. USD 700 million) per year. Should we remain on an RCP8.5 emissions pathway, these values may double (for mortality) or even triple (for labour productivity) by the end of the century. Under an RCP2.6 scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak around mid-century, when climate is assumed to stop warming. Even though uncertainties in the model are large, the underlying trend in impacts is unequivocal. The results of the study are valuable information for political discussions and allow for a better understanding of the cost of inaction.

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Assessing the Burden of Suicide Death Associated With Nonoptimum Temperature in a Changing Climate

et al. 2023

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ImportanceFew studies have projected future suicide burden associated with daily temperatures in a warming climate.ObjectivesTo assess the burden of suicide death associated with daily nonoptimal temperature and to project the change of suicide burden associated with nonoptimal temperature in different regions and seasons under various climate change scenarios.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsBetween January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019, we conducted a time-stratified, case-control study among more than 430 000 individual suicide decedents from all counties in mainland China.ExposuresDaily meteorological data were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Fifth Generation (ERA5) reanalysis product. Historical and future temperature series were projected under 3 scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions from 1980 to 2099, with 10 general circulation models.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe relative risk (RR) and burden of suicide death associated with nonoptimal temperature (ie, temperatures greater than or less than minimum-mortality temperature); the change of suicide burden associated with future climate warming in different regions and seasons under various climate change scenarios.ResultsOf 432 008 individuals (mean [SD] age; 57.6 [19.0] years; 253 093 male [58.6%]) who died by suicide, 85.8% (370 577) had a middle school education or less. The temperature-suicide associations were approximately linear, with increasing death risks at higher temperatures. The excess risk was more prominent among older adults (ie, ≥75 years; RR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.46-1.99) and those with low education level (ie, middle school education or less; RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.36-1.57). There were 15.2% suicide deaths (95% estimated CI [eCI], 14.6%-15.6%) associated with nonoptimal temperature nationally. Consistent and drastic increases in excess suicide deaths over this century were predicted under the high-emission scenario, whereas a leveling-off trend after the mid–21st century was predicted under the medium- and low-emission scenarios. Nationally, compared with the historical period (1980-2009), excess suicide deaths were predicted to increase by 8.3% to 11.4% in the 2050s and 8.5% to 21.7% in the 2090s under the 3 scenarios. The projected percentage increments of excess suicide deaths were predicted to be greater in the South (55.0%; 95% eCI, 30.5%-85.6%) and in winter (54.5%; 95% eCI, 30.4%-77.0%) in the 2090s under the high-emission scenario.Conclusions and RelevanceFindings of this nationwide case-control study suggest that higher temperature may be associated with the risk and burden of suicide death in China. These findings highlight the importance of implementing effective climate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tailoring public health policies to adapt to global warming.

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Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

Cited by 71 publications

References 24 publications

Mortality Related to Air Temperature in European Cities, Based on Threshold Regression Models

Mortality Related to Air Temperature in European Cities, Based on Threshold Regression Models

Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland

Assessing the Burden of Suicide Death Associated With Nonoptimum Temperature in a Changing Climate

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