Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

doi:10.1038/nclimate1902

Cited by 147 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…Mid-latitude countries typically show a seasonal pattern with a mortality peak in winter [39] and most studies project a reduction of cold-related mortality due to global warming (e.g., [40]), which acts in the opposite direction as the expected increase in future heat-related mortality. Furthermore, some authors also detected an influence of previous winter mortality on summer heat-related mortality [41].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

Zacharias

Koppe

Mücke

2014

Climate

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Abstract:The influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate , near future climate , and remote future climate . Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively). In addition to OPEN ACCESSClimate 2015, 3 101 changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2.4 and 5.1 in the acclimatization and non-acclimatization approach, respectively. Even though there is substantial variability across the individual model simulations, it is most likely that the future burden of heat will increase considerably. The obtained results point to public health interventions to reduce the vulnerability of the population to heat waves.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

Zacharias

Koppe

Mücke

2014

Climate

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“…16 Modeling of future summer and winter climate scenarios for New York City and Europe indicates that the net effect of future warming will be an increase in the number of annual deaths. 17,18 …”

Section: Climate Change Consequences On Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

When It Rains, It Pours: Future Climate Extremes and Health

Patz

Grabow

Limaye

2014

Annals of Global Health

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Background: The accelerating accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere is changing global environmental conditions in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. Climate change poses a host of challenges to the health of populations through complex direct and indirect mechanisms. The direct effects include an increased frequency of heat waves, rising sea levels that threaten low-lying communities, anticipated extremes in the global hydrologic cycle (droughts, floods, and intense storms), and adverse effects on agricultural production and fisheries due to environmental stressors and changes in land use. Indirectly, climate change is anticipated to threaten health by worsening urban air pollution and increasing rates of infectious (particularly waterborne and vector-borne) disease transmission. Objective: To provide a state-of-the-science review on the health consequences of a changing climate. Findings: Environmental public health researchers have concluded that, on balance, adverse health outcomes will dominate under these changed climatic conditions. The number of pathways through which climate change can affect the health of populations makes this environmental health threat one of the largest and most formidable of the new century. Geographic location plays an influential role the potential for adverse health effects caused by climate change, and certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to expected health effects. Two kinds of strategies are available for responding to climate change: mitigation policies (which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation measures (relating to preparedness for anticipated impacts). Conclusions: To better understand and address the complex nature of health risks posed by climate change, interdisciplinary collaboration is critical. Efforts to move beyond our current reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources may offer some of the greatest health opportunities in more than a century and cobenefits beyond the health sector. Because the nations least responsible for climate change are most vulnerable to its effects, the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not merely technical, but also moral.

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“…Elevated mortality in winter is driven largely by respiratory infections and associated cardivascular sequelae. Using a two-day lag of cold temperatures, Li and colleagues projected substantial increases of net annual temperature-related mortality in New York City across a wide range of climate models and scenarios [26]. A few other studies that have quantified both heat- and cold- related mortality found that the increases in heat-related mortality may be offset by decreases in cold-related mortality in some cities [27–29].…”

Section: Health Impacts Of Heatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health Impacts of Heat in a Changing Climate: How Can Emerging Science Inform Urban Adaptation Planning?

2014

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Extreme heat is one of the most important global causes of weather-related mortality, and climate change is leading to more frequent and intense heat waves. Recent epidemiologic findings on heat-related health impacts have reinforced our understanding of mortality impacts of extreme heat and have shown a range of impacts on morbidity outcomes including cardiovascular, respiratory and mental health responses. Evidence is also emerging on temporal trends towards decreasing exposure-response, probably reflecting autonomous population adaptation. Many cities are actively engaged in the development of heat adaptation plans to reduce future health impacts. Epidemiologic research into the evolution of local heat-health responses over time can greatly aid adaptation planning for heat, prevention of adverse health outcomes among vulnerable populations, as well as evaluation of new interventions. Such research will be facilitated by the formation of research partnerships involving epidemiologists, climate scientists, and local stakeholders.

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Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York

Cited by 147 publications

References 26 publications

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany

When It Rains, It Pours: Future Climate Extremes and Health

Health Impacts of Heat in a Changing Climate: How Can Emerging Science Inform Urban Adaptation Planning?

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