Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios

Xu, Ping; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J.; Luan, Sheng

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.258

Cited by 25 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The obtained reference TAN emission coefficients of livestock manure housing stage are then adjusted by different temperature intervals based on provincial monthly average temperature. The detailed processes have been described in a previous study (Xu et al, 2017), which focus on manure cropland application and thus do not consider NH 3 emissions from outdoor/grazing, housing, and manure storage. Similar to previous studies (Kang et al, 2016;Xu et al, 2015Xu et al, , 2019, we assume that livestock population per month remained the same due to the small monthly fluctuation of meat, egg, and milk productions (http://www.caaa.cn/).…”

Section: Ngr Estimation Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Variation of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions From China's Croplands Codetermined by Regional Urbanization and Its Feedback to Global Climate Change

Chen

Houlton

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Reactive gaseous nitrogen (Ngr) emissions significantly affect Earth's climate system. Disagreement exists, however, over Ngr contributions to short-versus long-term climate forcing, from local to global scales and among different gaseous forms, including NH 3 , NO x , and N 2 O. Here, we provide a comprehensive inventory of Ngr from China's croplands based on a new bottom-up, mass flow-based approach integrated with fine-resolution agricultural activity data and nitrogen emission factors. We demonstrate that China's croplands emit about 8.87 Tg N to the atmosphere in 2014. Across different prefectures, Ngr emission per capita conforms to a "Kuznets curve," that is, first increases then decreases, along the gradient of increasing urbanization. Ngr emission per gross domestic productivity (GDP) decreases exponentially with increasing urbanization or per capita GDP. Furthermore, climate change impact analyses suggest that the global-scale warming effect of China's cropland N 2 O emissions dominate over local cooling effects ascribed to its NH 3 and NO x emissions. Plain Language Summary Reactive gaseous nitrogen, sourced to the world's highest fertilizer application rates in China, imparts local cooling effects on short time scales. The effects are ultimately counterbalanced by nitrous oxide emissions over the long term, leading to substantial warming effects on the global climate system. We base our conclusion on the first-ever high-resolution assessment of reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere from China's croplands. Owing to limited high-resolution reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions data, hitherto, large uncertainties have existed in the detailing the role of China's cropland reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions on climate forcing. This paucity of information poses a challenge for informing China's agricultural sustainability policies with regard to maintaining/increasing agricultural yields while reduces reactive gaseous nitrogen emissions and their warming potential. Our analyses provide essential information for further sustainable N management and the interactions between agriculture and climate change. We provide policy-relevant information for mitigation targets, including the 2°C limit goal set by the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, enabling progress related to multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

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Section: Ngr Estimation Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Variation of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions From China's Croplands Codetermined by Regional Urbanization and Its Feedback to Global Climate Change

Chen

Houlton

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The rapid development of China has led to severe air pollution due to the ever-increasing energy demand and lax environmental legislation over the past decades, and this exerts negative influences on human health, climate, agriculture, and ecosystems (Liu et al, 2019;Xue et al, 2019a;. In 2013, China implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (denoted the Action Plan) to fight against air pollution (China State Council, 2013), and a series of active clean air policies for various sectors were adopted in support of the Action Plan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of global scenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combining shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes as described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China's future anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed to integrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamic projection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The model contains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projection module and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rate projection module provides the standardized and unified future energy scenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy system model. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply in China under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. The emission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China and accurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologies and control measures under different environmental policies. We developed technology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g. coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportation sectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleet turnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annual basis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios (SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and three pollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced control policy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emission scenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's future emissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We found that, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollution control policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major air pollutants (i.e. SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China will be reduced by 34 %–66 % in 2030 and 58 %–87 % in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important role in continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissions will remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without active actions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates of emission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in 2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

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“…Therefore, NH 3 can significantly affect ambient air quality as the key precursor of the formation of secondary sulfate and nitrate particles (major components of PM 2.5 ; Liu et al, 2015;Seinfeld & Pandis, 2016;Sun et al, 2017). In addition, the importance of NH 3 in terms of its global impacts has increased because of the substantial reductions of SO 2 and NO x emissions (Emami et al, 2018;Squizzato et al, 2018a) while there have been only limited reductions of NH 3 emissions (Tang et al, 2017;Xu et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ambient Ammonia Concentrations Across New York State

Zhou

Holsen

et al. 2019

JGR Atmospheres

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Ammonia (NH3) was monitored at four locations (two urban and two rural) across New York State from April 2016 to October 2017 using active and passive systems. The two rural sites were Pinnacle State Park (PIN) and the Village of Potsdam, and the two urban sites were the City of Rochester and Queens College in New York City. Active and passive concentrations were well correlated across all sites (r2 = 0.866), but the active systems measured 6.2% higher NH3 concentrations. The mean (±SD) NH3 concentrations measured using active systems in Queens College, City of Rochester, Village of Potsdam, and PIN were 3.22 ± 2.23, 2.84 ± 1.91, 1.29 ± 1.12, and 0.82 ± 0.64 ppb, respectively. Ambient NH3 concentrations varied with diel vehicular and seasonal agricultural activities. NH3 concentrations at the urban sites had lower seasonal variability than the rural sites. NH3 concentrations were generally related to regional and in‐state NH3 emissions although less regional influence was observed at the urban sites. Local NH3 source directions were identified using conditional bivariate probability function. The urban sites were affected by local NH3 sources such as vehicular emissions and urban population centers. Likely distant NH3 source locations affecting the four sites were identified using simplified quantitative transport bias analysis model. Rural sites were more highly affected by transported NH3. Midwestern and Atlantic were major NH3 source areas. NH3 emissions from the south of PIN were probably due to the use of diesel trucks and other diesel engines in the hydraulic fracturing industry in Pennsylvania near the New York State border.

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Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios

Cited by 25 publications

References 56 publications

Spatial Variation of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions From China's Croplands Codetermined by Regional Urbanization and Its Feedback to Global Climate Change

Spatial Variation of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions From China's Croplands Codetermined by Regional Urbanization and Its Feedback to Global Climate Change

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Ambient Ammonia Concentrations Across New York State

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