Projections of meteorological drought events in the upper Kızılırmak basin under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Climate change, whose negative impacts are becoming increasingly apparent as a result of human actions, intensifies the drought problems to dangerous levels. The development of local-scale drought projections is crucial to take necessary precautions for potential risks and possible effects of drought. In this study, drought analysis was conducted in the Upper Kızılırmak Basin using the standard precipitation index (SPI) method for the near future (2020–2049), mid-century (2050–2074), and late century (2075–2099). The precipitation data required for the SPI were gathered from the data sets developed for the SSP climate change scenarios of the four chosen global climate models. Precipitation data has been made more convenient for local analysis studies with the statistical downscaling method. Forecasts have been created for the temporal variation and spatial distribution of drought events. The study findings indicate that, under the SSP 2-4.5 scenario, drought-related effects of climate change will decrease until 2100. On the other hand, the number and severity of drought events, as well as the duration of dry periods, will increase until 2100 under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario. According to the SSP 5-8.5 scenario, consisting of the most pessimistic forecasts, moderate drought will last 0–60 months, severe drought will last 0–30 months, and extreme drought will last 0–20 months in different regions of the area in the late century. The spatial distribution of droughts will differ based on the SPI index and climate change scenarios. Comparison of SPI and CZI data showed that both indices are effective in meteorological drought analyses.