Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

Toreti, Andrea; Naveau, Philippe; Zampieri, Matteo; Schindler, Anne; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Xoplaki, Elena; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Gualdi, Silvio; Luterbacher, Jürg

doi:10.1002/grl.50940

Cited by 119 publications

(104 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Observational records as well as global climate model (GCM) simulations both show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere increases at a rate of approximately 7 % per K of increase in global mean temperature (Allen and Ingram, 2002;Held and Soden, 2006;Wentz et al, 2007), as expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation conditional to stable relative humidity (Held and Soden, 2006;Pall et al, 2006). An increased amount of atmospheric water content is expected to intensify precipitation extremes (Allan and Soden, 2008;O'Gorman and Schneider, 2009;Trenberth, 2011), as evidenced by both observations and GCM simulations (Alexander et al, 2006;Krakauer, 2015, 2016;Kharin et al, 2013;Min et al, 2011;O'Gorman and Schneider, 2009;Stocker et al, 2013;Toreti et al, 2013;Westra et al, 2013),…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Asadieh

Krakauer

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

104

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Abstract. Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multimodel mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4 • warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2 • warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Asadieh

Krakauer

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

104

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“…There are many different scenarios for how precipitation patterns will change with climate change, although there does seem to be consensus that there will be much more variability in the amount and frequency of intense rainfall in Nova Scotia [45,51,53] and in the Northeastern United States [54][55][56]. Richards and Daigle [45] project a variety of climate variables into the future based on an ensemble of several climate models.…”

Section: Precipitation and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of particular note to Atlantic Canada is the reported 85% increase in frequency of extreme rainfall and snowfall events in New England, meaning that a storm that used to occur every 12 months now occurs on average every 6.5 months. Singh et al [55] also predict an increase in precipitation amounts and frequency in coastal areas of the Northeastern United States, and Toreti et al [56] use high resolution global climate models to predict a significant intensification of daily precipitation extremes for all seasons.…”

Section: Precipitation and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated River and Coastal Hydrodynamic Flood Risk Mapping of the LaHave River Estuary and Town of Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, Canada

Webster

McGuigan

Collins

et al. 2014

Water

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Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, is located 20 km inland from the mouth of the LaHave River estuary on the Atlantic Coast of Canada. Bridgewater is at risk of flooding due to the combined effects of river runoff and a storm surge on top of high tide. Projected increases in sea-level and possible increased river runoff with climate change increase the risk of future flooding. A set of river and ocean water level simulations were carried out to determine the risk of flooding to Bridgewater today and in the future under climate change. The hydrodynamic simulation developed incorporates return periods of a time series of river discharge measurements for the LaHave watershed, ocean water dynamics at the mouth of the river under normal tidal conditions and with two levels of storm surge, near shore and river bathymetry, as well as high precision topographic lidar derived ground elevations and survey grade GPS. The study was supported by data from two tide gauge sensors, and qualitative evidence provided by the community such as historical flood levels and photographs. Results show that areas upstream of the town are vulnerable to large discharge events of the LaHave River. The downtown waterfront and infrastructure are not susceptible to fluvial flooding, but is vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surge flooding.

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“…In Atlantic Canada there is evidence that heavy rainfall events are increasing in frequency [29,30] an observation that agrees with models and predictions [28,29,31,32]; the increase in rainfall is expected to occur in the winter and spring [28,31]. Increased and intensified rainfall is also observed and predicted for New England [33][34][35]. Studies of streamflow patterns during the last 50 years show that maritime rivers in the Atlantic provinces have been experiencing lower summer flows, but higher flows in early winter and spring [36,37].…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 65%

A Flood Risk Assessment of the LaHave River Watershed, Canada Using GIS Techniques and an Unstructured Grid Combined River-Coastal Hydrodynamic Model

McGuigan

Webster

Collins

2015

JMSE

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Abstract:A flexible mesh hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate flooding of the LaHave River watershed in Nova Scotia, Canada, from the combined effects of fluvial discharge and ocean tide and surge conditions. The analysis incorporated high-resolution lidar elevation data, bathymetric river and coastal chart data, and river cross-section information. These data were merged to generate a seamless digital elevation model which was used, along with river discharge and tidal elevation data, to run a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to produce flood risk predictions for the watershed. Fine resolution topography data were integrated seamlessly with coarse resolution bathymetry using a series of GIS tools. Model simulations were carried out using DHI Mike 21 Flexible Mesh under a variety of combinations of discharge events and storm surge levels. Discharge events were simulated for events that represent a typical annual maximum runoff and extreme events, while tide and storm surge events were simulated by using the predicted tidal time series and adding 2 and 3 m storm surge events to the ocean level seaward of the mouth of the river. Model output was examined and the maximum water level for the duration of each simulation was extracted and merged into one file that was used in a GIS to map the maximum flood extent and water depth. Upstream areas were most vulnerable to fluvial discharge events, the lower estuary was most vulnerable to the effect of storm surge and sea-level rise, and the Town of Bridgewater was influenced by the combined effects of OPEN ACCESS J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2015, 3 1094 discharge and storm surge. To facilitate the use of the results for planning officials, GIS flood risk layers were intersected with critical infrastructure, identifying the roads, buildings, and municipal sewage infrastructure at risk under each flood scenario. Roads were converted to points at 10 m spacing for inundated areas and appended with the flood depth calculated from the maximum water level subtracted from the lidar digital elevation model.

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Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

Cited by 119 publications

References 40 publications

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Integrated River and Coastal Hydrodynamic Flood Risk Mapping of the LaHave River Estuary and Town of Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, Canada

A Flood Risk Assessment of the LaHave River Watershed, Canada Using GIS Techniques and an Unstructured Grid Combined River-Coastal Hydrodynamic Model

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