Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

Kiyoshige, Eri; Ogata, Soshiro; O’Flaherty, Martı́n; Capewell, Simon; Takegami, Misa; Iihara, Koji; Kypridemos, Chris; Nishimura, Kunihiro

doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100637

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…A similar large-scale analysis found that, of 79,457,000 adults aged 35-84, only 49,273 deaths in 2012 were attributable to heart disease; this rate is among the lowest in the world [89]. However, even though coronary heart disease mortality is predicted to further decrease from 2020 to 2040 (39,600 to 36,200 deaths in males vs. 27,400 to 23,600 in females), Japanese studies report that diabetes complications (e.g., nephropathy and macrovascular disease) contribute to higher all-cause mortality by leading to strokes instead of heart disease [92][93][94].…”

Section: Public Health Costs: Deathsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Obesity vs. Metabolically Healthy Obesity in East Asia

2023

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With over one-third of East Asia’s 1.7 billion people overweight or obese, mounting demographic pressure and burgeoning healthcare costs are forcing public health officials to grapple with the rising morbidity and mortality associated with obesity. However, the presence of metabolically healthy obesity, in which the short-term disease risks of diabetes and heart disease are low, represents a possible buffer for healthcare planning in East Asia. This narrative review analyzes the health risks from obesity through representative Japan- and China-specific analyses that take into account unique cultural, genetic, and other factors that drive obesity; the potential impact of metabolically healthy obesity on public health; and suggested non-surgical/non-pharmacological interventions to relieve pressure on the nationalized healthcare systems prevalent in the region. Such an emphasis on interventions to both delay obesity as well as potentially reverse metabolic syndrome could save millions of lives and billions of USD equivalents in healthcare throughout East Asia.

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Section: Public Health Costs: Deathsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Obesity vs. Metabolically Healthy Obesity in East Asia

2023

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“…In addition, population aging explained around 2.2 million additional deaths from stroke globally between 1990 and 2017, with Japan being the most affected country. 5 We previously estimated that population aging has a major impact on the time trends of stroke deaths including hemorrhagic stroke in Japan. 6 Furthermore, the number of stroke patients is steeply increasing in Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ten-year national trends in in-hospital mortality and functional outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage by age in Japan: J-ASPECT study

Nakaoku,

Ogata,

Ren

et al. 2024

European Stroke Journal

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Introduction: National-level data on trends in the prognosis of age-stratified patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are lacking. This study aimed to assess time trends in in-hospital mortality and functional outcomes of ICH patients by sex and age, and to explore factors associated with changes in in-hospital mortality trend. Patients and methods: Using the largest nationwide, J-ASPECT stroke database in Japan, this serial cross-sectional study included ICH patients aged ⩾18 years who were hospitalized for non-traumatic ICH from April 2010 to March 2020. We examined trends in in-hospital mortality and functional outcomes using the modified Rankin Scale at discharge, as well as differences in in-hospital mortality change between age groups. Results: Among 262,399 ICH patients from 934 hospitals, crude in-hospital mortality showed a significant decreasing time trend (from 19.5% to 16.7%), and this trend was consistent across sex and age groups. In addition, differences in in-hospital mortality change over the 10-year study period were significant between male patients aged ⩾75 years and those aged ⩽64 years (−3.9% [95% confidence interval, −5.4 to −2.4] for 75–84 years; −4.1% [−6.3 to −1.9] for ⩾85 years). On the other hand, the proportion of dependent patients (mRS 3–5) at discharge increased from 52.0% to 54.9% over the 10-year study period. Conclusion: The in-hospital mortality of ICH patients improved, whereas the proportion of patients with dependent functional outcome at discharge increased, over the 10-year study period. Elucidating the mechanism underlying differences in in-hospital mortality reduction in men may provide insights into effective interventions in the future.

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