Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology

Gouveia, João Pedro; Fortes, Patrícia; Seixas, Júlia

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.09.042

Cited by 67 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The CLUES project designed four storylines about the UK energy system 2050 and subsequently quantified the storylines using the Tyndall model [41]. Gouveia et al developed projections of energy services demand for residential buildings for Portugal and checked the robustness of their TIMES-PT model results using 'sensitivity analysis scenarios'; no detailed information about their construction is available [42]. Capell an-P erez et al used a meta-study about global socio-economic scenarios [43] to define a set of storylines, driving a system-dynamics energy model with focus on global fossil fuel depletion [44].…”

Section: State Of Transfer To Energy Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

Weimer-Jehle

Buchgeister

Hauser

et al. 2016

Energy

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a b s t r a c tModel-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. The challenge to deal with this 'context uncertainty' in a systematic and comprehensive manner has only recently started to attract intensified attention in energy research; the search for appropriate methods is ongoing. This paper proposes a new concept for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios, which combines familiar environmental modeling approaches with new developments in qualitative scenario methodology, and demonstrates the possible application of the concept in model-based energy scenario construction.

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Section: State Of Transfer To Energy Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

Weimer-Jehle

Buchgeister

Hauser

et al. 2016

Energy

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“…6 Our estimate of total floor area available in the ESCO market relies on buildings data from several sources including the U.S. EIA (energy information administration); the U.S. GSA (general services agency); the U.S. Department of HUD (housing and urban development) and the CLPHA (Council of Large Public Housing Authorities). Unfortunately, we do not have enough information to determine what percentage of that floor area is economically feasible for ESCOs (or their customers) to retrofit.…”

Section: Estimating Esco Industry Remaining Market Investment and Savmentioning

confidence: 99%

A method to estimate the size and remaining market potential of the U.S. ESCO (energy service company) industry

Stuart

Larsen

Goldman

et al. 2014

Energy

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a b s t r a c tThis study presents a method to estimate the market investment potential for ESPC (energy-saving performance contracts) and annual blended energy savings remaining in buildings typically addressed by U.S. ESCOs (energy service companies). We define ESCOs as companies for whom performance-based contracting is a core business activity. The market potential analysis incorporates market penetration estimates provided by industry experts in late 2012, data on U.S. building stock typically addressed by ESCOs, and typical project investment costs from a database of 4000 þ projects. ESCO industry revenue growth significantly outpaced U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth during 2009e2011. We estimate that the remaining investment potential in facilities typically addressed by the ESCO industry ranges from~$71 to $133 billion. Our analysis includes ESCO industry size and growth projections drawing on information from interviews with ESCO executives conducted in late 2012. The U.S. ESCO industry could grow in size from $6 billion in 2013 to~$7.5 billion by 2014, but this growth is contingent on enabling policies. The U.S. ESCO industry is similar in size to the ESCO industries in Germany, France, and China. Our estimation approach could be adapted for other countries with the caveat that ESCO industry definitions and revenue reporting practices vary across countries.Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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“…The study showed that occupant behaviour and family composition strongly affected the functioning and occupant preferences for indoor thermal environments, and that occupants' adaptations markedly affected the energy consumption and overall energy efficiency of the house. Despite the existence of some work done in the thermal comfort field, only three bottom-up models (SLABE (Mauro et al, 2015), Penna et al (2015) and TIMES (Gouveia et al, 2012)) have included it as an energy assessment variable.…”

Section: Selection Of Response Variables and Covariatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology for predicting the energy performance and indoor thermal comfort of residential stocks on the neighbourhood and city scales. A case study in Spain

Braulio-Gonzalo

Bovea

Aguilar

et al. 2016

Journal of Cleaner Production

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Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology

Cited by 67 publications

References 32 publications

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios

A method to estimate the size and remaining market potential of the U.S. ESCO (energy service company) industry

A methodology for predicting the energy performance and indoor thermal comfort of residential stocks on the neighbourhood and city scales. A case study in Spain

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