Projection of the Number of Elderly in Different Health States in Thailand in the Next Ten Years, 2020–2030

Abstract

The objective of this study is to predict the volume of the elderly in different health status categories in Thailand in the next ten years (2020–2030). Multistate modelling was performed. We defined four states of elderly patients (aged ≥ 60 years) according to four different levels of Activities of Daily Living (ADL): social group; home group; bedridden group; and dead group. The volume of newcomers was projected by trend extrapolation methods with exponential growth. The transition probabilities from one state to another was obtained by literature review and model optimization. The mortality rate was obtained by literature review. Sensitivity analysis was conducted. By 2030, the number of social, home, and bedridden groups was 15,593,054, 321,511, and 152,749, respectively. The model prediction error was 1.75%. Sensitivity analysis with the change of transition probabilities by 20% caused the number of bedridden patients to vary from between 150,249 and 155,596. In conclusion, the number of bedridden elders will reach 153,000 in the next decade (3 times larger than the status quo). Policy makers may consider using this finding as an input for future resource planning and allocation. Further studies should be conducted to identify the parameters that better reflect the transition of people from one health state to another.

Implementation and evaluation of the peer-training program for village health volunteers to improve chronic disease management among older adults in rural Thailand

“…This means that one out of every three Thais will be an older person [ 4 ]. The challenge of an aging population is coupled with the high prevalence and incidence of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as hypertension, diabetes, stroke, and coronary artery diseases, which make older adults more vulnerable to disabilities that require special continuing care [ [5] , [6] , [7] ]. In Thailand, as in many low-to-middle-income countries in transition, failure to effectively implement evidence-informed intervention for older adults with chronic diseases represents a key obstacle in the progress of the healthcare system, resulting from the high burden of disease and the extreme shortage of human and material resources [ 8 ].…”

Understanding perspectives on health-promoting behaviours among older adults with hypertension

“…Globally, the number of older adults has continued to increase rapidly, from 1 billion in 2019 to an expected 1.4 billion by 2030 (World Health Organization, 2021 ). This trend is also evident in Thailand, where the population of individuals aged 60 years and older is 11.19 million in 2021 and is predicted to reach 15.59 million by 2030 (Tantirat et al, 2020 ). Hypertension is a medical condition that is highly prevalent in older adults and imposes major risk factors of heart disease, stroke, and renal failure.…”

Listening to Caregivers’ Voices: The Informal Family Caregiver Burden of Caring for Chronically Ill Bedridden Elderly Patients

“…Indeed, some 80–90% of elderly individuals have one chronic illness, and 50–77% have experienced a chronic illness more than twice [ 19 ]. Elderly Thais with chronic illness may be grouped as social, home, bedridden or dead [ 20 ]. In 2015, the Thai Ministry of Public Health reported that five million elderly patients, accounting for 21%, were living with chronic disease at home.…”