Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models

Dosio, Alessandro

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5

Cited by 125 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…A complete discussion of the technique, including validation and effect on climate indices can be found in Piani, Haerter et al (), Dosio and Paruolo (), and Dosio et al (). Dosio () showed that bias‐adjustment largely improves the value of present and future threshold‐based indices (e.g., the number of summer days): these indices are generally poorly simulated over the present climate, such that the projected climate change may not be reliable. The climate change signal of percentile‐based indices (e.g., Tx90p) and indices related to the duration of an event (e.g., warm spell duration) are not affected by bias‐adjustment (Dosio, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming

Dosio

Fischer

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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105

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Based on high‐resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact‐relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed‐threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming

Dosio

Fischer

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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105

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“…We set our regional focus over the African continent as Africa is supposed to be a climate change hot spot with a high exposure to future climate changes and a low adaptation capacity resulting in a very large vulnerability to future climate change (e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). and have been analyzed and published in coordinated ways within the CORDEX-Africa initiative (e.g., Abba Omar & Abiodun, 2017;Abiodun et al, 2017;Diallo et al, 2016;Dosio, 2017;Dosio & Panitz, 2016;Fotso-Nguemo et al, 2017;Pinto et al, 2016;Sylla et al, 2016). Examples are the widely spread rainfed agricultural systems, the fragile infrastructure, and various health issues related to climate such as malnutrition after droughts, heat waves (HWs), but also malaria outbreaks (e.g., Kjellstrom et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

et al. 2018

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At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, an agreement to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase well below 2°C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio‐economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. In the paper we will discuss the analysis of indices assigned to the sectors health, agriculture, and infrastructure in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world for the African continent. For this analysis an ensemble of 10 different general circulation model‐regional climate model simulations conducted in the framework of the COordinated Downscaling EXperiment for Africa was investigated. The results show that the African continent, in particular the regions between 15°S and 15°N, has to expect an increase in hot nights and longer and more frequent heat waves even if the global temperature will be kept below 2°C. These effects intensify if the global mean temperature will exceed the 2°C threshold. Moreover, the daily rainfall intensity is expected to increase toward higher global warming scenarios and will affect especially the African Sub‐Saharan coastal regions.

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“…Such temperature increase is expected to continue in the future with a projected global temperature change of about 1.4°C to 4.8°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014) and a regional response over the Sahel of about 2°C to 6°C (Sylla, Nikiema, et al, 2016) when considering the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 concentration scenarios (Moss et al, 2012). As a result, hot extremes will become more common and deadly in many regions across the world (Gasparrini et al, 2017;Im et al, 2017;Lee & Kim, 2016;Mora et al, 2017) and in tropical Africa (Giorgi et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2017;Russo et al, 2014), with their frequency, duration, and magnitude depending on the underlying forcing scenario (Anderson et al, 2018;Dosio, 2017;Linares et al, 2014;Russo et al, 2016). Such hot extremes can have widespread impacts on human and natural systems, thereby challenging the adaptive capacity and resilience of local populations and activities (Ceccherini et al, 2017;Fontaine et al, 2013;Pal & Eltahir, 2016;Sultan & Gaetani, 2016;Zougmoré et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

et al. 2018

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Heat and discomfort indices are applied to the multimodel ensemble mean of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment-Africa regional climate model projections to investigate future changes in heat stress and the proportion of human population at risk under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios over West Africa. The results show that heat stress of category Extreme Caution is projected to extend spatially (up to 25%) over most of the Gulf of Guinea, Sahel, and Sahara desert areas, with different regional coverage during the various seasons. Similarly, the projected seasonal proportion of human population at discomfort substantially increases to more than 50% over most of the region. In particular, in June-August over the Sahel and the western Sahara desert, new areas (15% of West Africa) where most of the population is at risk emerge. This indicates that from 50% to almost everyone over most of the Sahel countries and part of the western Sahara desert is at risk of possible heat cramp, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke in future climate scenarios. These conditions become more frequent and are accompanied by the emergence of days with dangerous heat stress category during which everyone feels discomfort and is vulnerable to a likely heat cramp and heat exhaustion. In general, all the above features are more extended and more frequent in the 2°C than in the 1.5°C scenario. Protective measures are thus required for outdoor workers, occupational settings in hot environments, and people engaged in strenuous activities.

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Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models

Abstract: Horn of Africa may have values of HWMId larger than that of longer, but relatively weak, heat waves over West Africa.

Cited by 125 publications

References 53 publications

Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming

Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

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