Projection of Social Burden of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM-II

Fukawa, Tetsuo

doi:10.1155/2012/832325

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…The estimation in 2050 was 38.7 trillion JPY (US$ 351.8 billion) in a report from Fukawa published in 2013. 30 In reports from the Cabinet Secretariat, Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy and Finance, and MHLW in May 2018, the estimate in 2040 was 78.1 trillion JPY (US$ 710.0 billion). 31 General comparison is not favorable because the estimation varies depending on the economic indices expected at the time of executing estimation and changes in demographics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting of Future Medical Care Expenditure in Japan Using a System Dynamics Model

Inoue¹,

Maswana

et al. 2022

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Background The aim of this study was to construct a system dynamics (SD) model to estimate the future medical care expenditure and to address the dynamic issues of health care that should be resolved. In particular, the measures for promoting the spread of generic drug (GE drug) usage in Japan and reducing cancer-related medical expenses were investigated regarding their future impact on medical finances. Methods The SD model was constructed from FY 2018 to FY 2050. The change in the future GE drug quantity share was analyzed by using a regression equation. The impact of the increase in medical expense for cancer and the change in the future national medical care expenditure were also estimated. Results The annual total medical care expenditure in FY 2050 would arrive at 58.9–64.2 trillion JPY (US$ 535.1–584.0 billion) (1.3–1.5 times higher than that in FY 2018) with different trends in age groups. The cumulative total medical care expenditure was expected to decrease by about 787.0–989.4 billion JPY (US$ 7.2–9.0 billion) if the impact of the spread of GE drug usage was considered. On the other hand, due to the continuous increase in the cancer-related medical expense, the cumulative total medical care expenditure was estimated to increase about 7554.3–11715.0 billion JPY (US$ 68.7–106.5 billion). Conclusions If the cancer-related medical expense continues to increase in the future, an increase of 686.4–1104.2 billion JPY (US$ 6.2–10.0 billion) in FY 2050 is expected which suggests that this disease field should be prioritized regarding the measures to maintain medical finances.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting of Future Medical Care Expenditure in Japan Using a System Dynamics Model

Inoue¹,

Maswana

et al. 2022

INQUIRY

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“…The dependency of the elderly aged 65 or over is classified into 4 levels as follows (Fukawa, 2012 Levels 2 and 3 correspond to persons eligible for the LTC Insurance, and Level 3 corresponds to care need assessments 4 and 5 in particular.…”

Section: Basic Featuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Trends of those elderly who have little relatives, therefore having high risk of dying in solitude, were also featured.Keywords: dynamic micro-simulation, population-household projection, living arrangements of the elderly, co-residing with a child, institution rate, solitary rate INAHSIM is a dynamic micro-simulation model, which was first developed in 1984-85 in Japan (Note 1). From the INAHSIM model, we can obtain a population-household projection in a coherent manner as well as dynamic statistics which are difficult to obtain from static surveys or macro simulation (Fukawa, 2012). As an example of such output, we prepared an index named solitary rate of the elderly.In this paper, basic features of the INAHSIM 2018 Simulation were described in Section 2, and results about living…”

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confidence: 99%

Projection of Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM

Fukawa¹

2018

SASS

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By using a dynamic micro-simulation model named INAHSIM, we conducted a population-household projection in Japan for the period of 2015 to 2070. Due to rapid aging of the population, the distribution of the elderly (65 years old or older) by living arrangements has a profound impact on the social system. Especially, the choice of the elderly among a) living in one-person households, b) co-residing with child households, and c) living in institutions, are crucial indicators for the future social burden of the elderly in Japan. In this paper, we projected the number and proportion of the elderly by living arrangement in future years. Trends of those elderly who have little relatives, therefore having high risk of dying in solitude, were also featured.Keywords: dynamic micro-simulation, population-household projection, living arrangements of the elderly, co-residing with a child, institution rate, solitary rate INAHSIM is a dynamic micro-simulation model, which was first developed in 1984-85 in Japan (Note 1). From the INAHSIM model, we can obtain a population-household projection in a coherent manner as well as dynamic statistics which are difficult to obtain from static surveys or macro simulation (Fukawa, 2012). As an example of such output, we prepared an index named solitary rate of the elderly.In this paper, basic features of the INAHSIM 2018 Simulation were described in Section 2, and results about living

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“…The author has so far tried several times to prepare an annual transition probability of dependency level for the elderly [2,3]. This time, we obtained a more realistic annual transition probability table of dependency levels, which was used in the INAHSIM 2017 Simulation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dependency of the elderly and expectation of independent living at birth in Japan

Fukawa¹

2017

Health Prim Car

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We defined the depenadency level of the elderly, and calculated the annual transition probability of dependency level in Japan. Then incorporating this transition probability into a dynamic micro-simulation model named INAHSIM-II, we calculated expected years of each dependency level from birth for future years, applying the life table method. In this way, expectation of independent living at birth was obtained from the simulation, and we conclude that although extension of Healthy Life Expectancy is desirable, extension of Expectation of Independent Living is more important as a public health objective.Correspondence to: Tetsuo Fukawa, Co-representative, Institution for Future

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Projection of Social Burden of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM-II

Cited by 6 publications

References 1 publication

Forecasting of Future Medical Care Expenditure in Japan Using a System Dynamics Model

Forecasting of Future Medical Care Expenditure in Japan Using a System Dynamics Model

Projection of Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM

Dependency of the elderly and expectation of independent living at birth in Japan

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