Projection of Non-Industrial Electricity Consumption in China’s Pearl River Delta under Global Warming Scenarios

Abstract

Global warming is a global issue closely linked to sustainability, and power systems around the world are facing immense pressure due to global warming. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of global warming on non-industrial electricity consumption in China’s Pearl River Delta. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to dynamically downscale and simulate summer climate change characteristics during historical periods and future warming scenarios of 1.5/2 °C. Then, in order to dynamically investigate the changes in non-industrial electricity consumption in cities after warming, we developed a non-industrial electricity consumption estimation model based on degree days and GDP. The regression model can well reproduce non-industrial electricity consumption in summer. Under future warming scenarios of 1.5/2 °C, the results indicate an annual growth trend in non-industrial electricity consumption due to global warming. Under a 1.5 °C warming scenario, non-industrial electricity consumption in both Guangzhou and Zhuhai increases, with Guangzhou experiencing a larger increase of about 10 terawatt-hours (TWh) compared to the historical period. However, under a 2 °C warming scenario, non-industrial electricity consumption in both cities slightly decreases compared to the 1.5 °C warming scenario, with a maximum decrease of 874 million kilowatt-hours.