Projection of Long-Term Care Costs in China, 2020–2050: Based on the Bayesian Quantile Regression Method

Abstract

The aging population in China highlights the significance of elderly long-term care (LTC) services. The number of people aged 65 and above increased from 96 million in 2003 to 150 million in 2016, some of whom were disabled due to chronic diseases or the natural effects of aging on bodily functions. Therefore, the measurement of future LTC costs is of crucial value. Following the basic framework but using different empirical methods from those presented in previous literature, this paper attempts to use the Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) method, which has many advantages over traditional linear regression. Another innovation consists of setting and measuring the high, middle, and low levels of LTC cost prediction for each disability state among the elderly in 2020–2050. Our projections suggest that by 2020, LTC costs will increase to median values of 39.46, 8.98, and 20.25 billion dollars for mild, moderate, and severe disabilities, respectively; these numbers will reach 141.7, 32.28, and 72.78 billion dollars by 2050. The median level of daily life care for mild, moderate, and severe disabilities will increase to 26.23, 6.36, and 27 billion dollars. Our results showed that future LTC cost increases will be enormous, and therefore, the establishment of a reasonable individual-social-government payment mechanism is necessary for the LTC system. The future design of an LTCI system must take into account a variety of factors, including the future elderly population, different care conditions, the financial burden of the government, etc., in order to maintain the sustainable development of the LTC system.

Prediction of the Number of and Care Costs for Disabled Elderly from 2020 to 2050: A Comparison between Urban and Rural Areas in China

“…Similar to the prediction results in previous studies [21], the predicted results in this study showed that the number of disabled elderly will increase in both urban and rural areas, and community home-based care will continue to be the mainstream type of LTC. Previous research has shown that community home-based care is more popular with the elderly than institutional care [47].…”

“…Therefore, any information on how much will be needed to pay for LTCI is crucial for Chinese policy makers attempting to design a sustainable LTCI financing policy. As such, the measurement of LTC costs is one of the most important research topics, both today and in the future [21].…”

<p>Health Insurance and Long-Term Care Services for the Disabled Elderly in China: Based on CHARLS Data</p>

“…LTC demands in underdeveloped countries, including China, are growing at a rate much faster than that in developed countries. 2 In recent years, China has to bear the long-term labor demand pressure brought by the aging of the population. China has the largest number of elderly people in the world (over 60 years old).…”

Effects of an Educational Glass Recycling Program against Environmental Pollution in Spain

“…From an economic point of view, if the glass collected from the La Liga Peque Recicladores program were sold on the market, the income generated could lead to self-financing of this educational activity; similar paper recycling education programs have already adopted this method of self-funding [29]. Furthermore, this glass recycling program is not only capable of generating income, but it could also lead to economic savings in the high healthcare and environmental costs resulting from pollution [63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73]. Therefore, governments should pay attention to the link between health and the environment when formulating public policies; likewise, it is incumbent upon the private industry to develop socially responsible behaviors.…”