Projection of landscape ecological risk and exploration of terrain effects in the Qilian Mountains, China

Abstract

The development of a reasonable landscape ecological risk (LER) assessment system is the key means to establish an eco‐safety early warning mechanism, promote ecological protection, and achieve sustainable management of regional ecosystems. Based on the Cellular Automaton‐Markov (CA‐Markov) model, we predicted the land use/cover changes (LUCC) in 2026 and 2034 in the typical arid and semiarid mountainous area of the Qilian Mountains. We constructed an LER model to analyze the spatial–temporal changes in LER, quantified the driving mechanism, and synthesized the constraining effect of terrain features. The results showed that the study area was dominated by ecologically stable areas in 1980–2000 and 2010–2018. Ecologically improved and deteriorated areas in the central and northwest expanded in 2000–2010 and 2018–2036, which was attributed to ecological restoration policies (returning farmland to forest and grassland, closing mountains to forest and grassland, etc.) and economic development (livestock and mineral development, etc.). Due to the frequent interference of human activities in flat and complex terrain areas, the degree of landscape fragmentation, separation, and vulnerability is enhanced, and the ecological conditions of bare land and snow cover are relatively fragile, resulting in high ecological risk. Therefore, we could focus on zoning management and rational land use planning. This study provides a new framework for controlling LER in the Qilian Mountains, and will provide a scientific reference for the formulation of risk mitigation strategies in other arid and semiarid mountains worldwide.