Projection of gust wind over China under RCP8.5 scenario within CORDEX‐EA‐II project

Abstract

A wind gust parameterization scheme combined with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used as the regional climate model (RCM) is employed to simulate and project the gust wind speed at 10‐m height above ground level for the whole China in the historical and future period 1981–2005 and 2036–2060. The gust wind speed is compared between the historical and future period to investigate its long‐term change under the background of warming climate within the CORDEX‐EA‐II project under the RCP8.5 scenario. First, the gust wind speed simulated by the gust parameterization inputted with the RCM simulations driven by the ERA‐Interim reanalysis data is compared with the ERA5 reanalysis data and their discrepancy is discussed. Then the historical/future gust wind speed is simulated/projected with the RCM simulations driven by four global climate models' results. The comparisons between the historical simulations and future projections show the gust wind speeds overall change slightly with little response to the future warming climate as the whole China is concerned, and the maximal increment and decrement of averaged annual maximal gust wind speed are, respectively, 2.25 and −2.57 m·s−1. The increases greater than 1 m·s−1 are mostly located in the eastern and southeastern coast and northwestern inland while the decreases less than −1 m·s−1 are mostly located in part of the Tibet Plateau and northwestern inland.

Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging Projections of Wind‐Speed Extremes for Wind Energy Applications Over China Under Climate Change

“…Additionally, for the studies that concern extremes, the majority have used GCMs directly, without addressing the bias in their projections due to coarse model resolutions (Dong et al., 2021; Z. Liu et al., 2022). ​ Due to limitations in the representation of physical processes, such as the planetary boundary layer and land surface processes (Feng et al., 2022; Horvath et al., 2012; G. Liu et al., 2023), dynamical downscaling may demonstrate substantial over‐ or underestimations in regional wind speeds, particularly the extremes. Empirical downscaling (ED) is thus desired as it does not depend on a perfect understanding of the physical mechanisms in the climate system (Khedun et al., 2014; Lu et al., 2021; Mtongori et al., 2016; Tang et al., 2016).…”

“…Liu et al, 2022). Due to limitations in the representation of physical processes, such as the planetary boundary layer and land surface processes (Feng et al, 2022;Horvath et al, 2012;G. Liu et al, 2023), dynamical downscaling may demonstrate substantial over-or underestimations in regional wind speeds, particularly the extremes.…”

Effect of urbanization on gust wind speed in summer over an urban area in Eastern China

“…Therefore, it is important to study on the wind gust over a certain area as it may be helpful in accurate severe weather warnings and valuable for societal, scientific and economic developments (e.g. Blackmore and Tsokri 2004, Suzuki 2009, Liu et al 2023.…”