Projection of future temperature extremes, related mortality, and adaptation due to climate and population changes in Taiwan

Chen, Chu-Chih; Wang, Yin Ru; Wang, Yu Chun; Lin, Shiou Li; Chen, Cheng Ta; Lu, Mong Ming; Guo, Yang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143373

Cited by 21 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Furthermore, the age-based comparisons revealed higher sensitivity of the elderly population to temperature-associated hospitalisation risk. These findings are consistent with literature that has established elderly population in Taiwan is more vulnerable to high temperatures 21 27 28. The reduced thermoregulatory response and physiological immunity among the elderly could be responsible for the higher sensitivity 29.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…The island nation, with a typical subtropical climate, is very sensitive to climate change, the last century has already shown a clear warming trend 20. Predictions for Taiwan suggest that extremely hot days would increase considerably 21. Nonetheless, it has been argued that Taiwan’s growing urbanisation and ageing society can double the extreme heat-related health effects 22.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimation of effects of extreme temperature on the risk of hospitalisation in Taiwan

Sharma

Deng

Wang

2023

J Epidemiol Community Health

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BackgroundExtreme temperatures are triggering and exacerbating hospital admissions and health burdens; however, it is still understudied. Therefore, we evaluated the effects of the average temperature on overall hospitalisation and the average length of hospital stay.MethodsDaily area-specific age-sex stratified hospitalisation records from 2006 to 2020 were collected from the National Health Research Institutes of Taiwan. The distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the area-specific relative risk (RR) and 95% CI associated with daily average temperature. Overall cumulative RR was pooled from area-specific RRs using random effects meta-analysis. Temperature effects of extreme high and low thresholds were also evaluated based on the 99th (32°C) and 5th (14°C) percentiles, respectively.ResultsOur findings suggested that the elderly (age ≥65 years) are vulnerable to temperature effects, while differential gender effects are not explicit in Taiwan. A higher risk of in-patient visits was seen among the elderly during extreme low temperatures (RR 1.08; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.11) compared with extreme high temperatures (RR 1.07; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.10). Overall, high-temperature extremes increased the risk of hospitalisation with an RR of 1.05 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.07) among the all-age-sex population in Taiwan. Additionally, lag-specific analysis of the study revealed that high-temperature effects on in-patient visits are effective on the same day of exposure, while cold effects occurred after 0–2 days of exposure. The average length of hospital stays can also increase with high-temperature extremes among age group 41–64 years and the elderly.ConclusionPublic health preparedness should consider the increased load on health facilities and health expenditures during extreme temperatures.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of effects of extreme temperature on the risk of hospitalisation in Taiwan

Sharma

Deng

Wang

2023

J Epidemiol Community Health

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“…According to our forecast, the trend of stillbirths will continue to increase. As indicated in a projection of temperature-related mortality in Taiwan, the annual number of hot days with a mean temperature over 30 °C was predicted to have a substantial 2- to 5-fold increase by 2060, and heat-related mortality was predicted to increase drastically 16 . The climate has diverse effects worldwide.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme temperature increases the risk of stillbirth in the third trimester of pregnancy

Yang

Lee

Chio

2022

Sci Rep

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Epidemiological studies have reported the association between extreme temperatures and adverse reproductive effects. However, the susceptible period of exposure during pregnancy remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the impact of extreme temperature on the stillbirth rate. We performed a time-series analysis to explore the associations between temperature and stillbirth with a distributed lag nonlinear model. A total of 22,769 stillbirths in Taiwan between 2009 and 2018 were enrolled. The mean stillbirth rate was 11.3 ± 1.4 per 1000 births. The relative risk of stillbirth due to exposure to extreme heat temperature (> 29 °C) was 1.18 (95% CI 1.11, 1.25). Pregnant women in the third trimester were most susceptible to the effects of extreme cold and heat temperatures. At lag of 0–3 months, the cumulative relative risk (CRR) of stillbirth for exposure to extreme heat temperature (29.8 °C, 97.5th percentile of temperature) relative to the optimal temperature (21 °C) was 2.49 (95% CI: 1.24, 5.03), and the CRR of stillbirth for exposure to extreme low temperature (16.5 °C, 1st percentile) was 1.29 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.80). The stillbirth rate in Taiwan is on the rise. Our findings inform public health interventions to manage the health impacts of climate change.

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“…Importantly, neither model accounts for future population aging (Varquez et al, 2020); thus, mortality factors in that study may be underestimated. Chen et al (Chen et al, 2021) investigated changes to heat-attributable mortality across six different regions of Taiwan given the impact of rising temperature projections from 2018 to 2060. Present-day heat-attributable mortality in older adults associated with ambient temperatures at or above 30 C ranged from 1 to 4 deaths per 100 000.…”

Section: Future Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adverse heat‐health outcomes and critical environmental limits (Pennsylvania State University Human Environmental Age Thresholds project)

Wolf

Vecellio

Kenney

2022

American J Hum Biol

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Background The earth's climate is warming and the frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves are increasing. Meanwhile, the world's population is rapidly aging. Epidemiological data demonstrate exponentially greater increases in morbidity and mortality during heat waves in adults ≥65 years. Laboratory data substantiate the mechanistic underpinnings of age‐associated differences in thermoregulatory function. However, the specific combinations of environmental conditions (i.e., ambient temperature and absolute/relative humidity) above which older adults are at increased risk of heat‐related morbidity and mortality are less clear. Methods This review was conducted to (1) examine the recent (past 3 years) literature regarding heat‐related morbidity and mortality in the elderly and discuss projections of future heat‐related morbidity and mortality based on climate model data, and (2) detail the background and unique methodology of our ongoing laboratory‐based projects aimed toward identifying the specific environmental conditions that result in elevated risk of heat illness in older adults, and the implications of using the data toward the development of evidence‐based safety interventions in a continually‐warming climate (PSU HEAT; Human Environmental Age Thresholds). Results The recent literature demonstrates that extreme heat continues to be increasingly detrimental to the health of the elderly and that this is apparent across the world, although the specific environmental conditions above which older adults are at increased risk of heat‐related morbidity and mortality remain unclear. Conclusion Characterizing the environmental conditions above which risk of heat‐related illnesses increase remains critical to enact policy decisions and mitigation efforts to protect vulnerable people during extreme heat events.

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Projection of future temperature extremes, related mortality, and adaptation due to climate and population changes in Taiwan

Cited by 21 publications

References 31 publications

Estimation of effects of extreme temperature on the risk of hospitalisation in Taiwan

Estimation of effects of extreme temperature on the risk of hospitalisation in Taiwan

Extreme temperature increases the risk of stillbirth in the third trimester of pregnancy

Adverse heat‐health outcomes and critical environmental limits (Pennsylvania State University Human Environmental Age Thresholds project)

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