Projection of future drought and its impact on simulated crop yield over South Asia using ensemble machine learning approach

Prodhan, Foyez Ahmed; Zhang, Jiahua; Sharma, Til Prasad Pangali; Nanzad, Lkhagvadorj; Zhang, Da; Seka, Ayalkibet M.; Ahmed, Naveed; Hasan, Shaikh Shamim; Hoque, Muhammad Ziaul; Mohana, Hasiba Pervin

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151029

Cited by 57 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…In addition, the climatic factors and SPEI were found to be correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in ACA (Cook et al, 2018;Dilinuer and Li, 2018;Mukherjee and Mishra, 2022). Different degrees of drought in the future will bring great threats and challenges to the water resources, agricultural and animal husbandry production, economic development and human health in ACA (An et al, 2022;Dou et al, 2022;Prodhan et al, 2022). It is predicted that drought will intensify under different scenarios in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future dry-wet climatic characteristics and drought trends over arid Central Asia

Cao

Xu²,

Suo³

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Understanding the future drought condition is critical to coping with the challenge of climate change. This study evaluated the simulation capability of 30 Global Climate Models (GCMs) provided by the Coupled Model InterComparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature (T) in arid Central Asia (ACA), and estimated the dry-wet climatic characteristics and trends under four SSP-RCPs (Shared Socio-economic Path-Representative Concentration Path scenarios, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Results show that the 30 CMIP6 GCMs have robust simulation ability for precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature (p < 0.01) over arid Central Asia. The delta-corrected multi-model ensemble mean (Delta-MME) outperforms GWR-corrected one (GWR-MME) and single models. In the future, the precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature will increase at different rates under the four SSP-RCPs. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the regions with faster precipitation and temperature rise, and the northern of arid Central Asia are the main area with the rapid growth of potential evapotranspiration. Arid Central Asia will face more severe drought, especially under high emission scenarios. In the near-term the drought will reduce at a certain extent, but the trend of drought will still be prominent in the mid and long term. Overall, drought in arid Central Asia will show an overall characteristic of decreasing drought number but increasing drought frequency, drought duration, and drought intensity. Drought risk is likely to be higher in Xinjiang of China, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The research can provide a scientific basis for the decision-making of water resources planning and management and socio-economic development of arid Central Asia.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future dry-wet climatic characteristics and drought trends over arid Central Asia

Cao

Xu²,

Suo³

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…This is no exception to the coastal area of Bangladesh, an extremely climatically prone country with a poor adaptive potential that depends on the natural resources for agriculture [28,69]. Considering the extreme susceptibility of CRB to global climate change-induced natural disasters such as cyclones, rising sea levels, salinity, erosion, and flooding [28,62,69,71,72], we advocate that the conservation of cultivated land should take precedence in the future.…”

Section: Challenges Of Sustainability Of Land Management and Ways For...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring Changes in Land Use Land Cover and Ecosystem Service Values of Dynamic Saltwater and Freshwater Systems in Coastal Bangladesh by Geospatial Techniques

Hoque

Ahmed

Islam

et al. 2022

Water

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Assessing and modeling the changes in land use and land cover (LULC) patterns and associated ecosystem service values (ESV) has become an important global agenda for formulating sustainable land management policies. Taking the coastal region of Bangladesh (CRB) as a case study, we utilized remote sensing and GIS techniques to analyze Landsat data of 1999 and 2019 to estimate the effect of LULC changes on the ESVs. The LULC classification, ESV quantification, and spatial variations were performed by semi-automated classification, per-unit value transfer, and spatial autocorrelation techniques, respectively. First, between 1999 and 2019, LULC altered dramatically (agricultural land and coastal wetlands decreased, while all other LULC types increased). Second, the total ESV decreased by 1.87%, which was mostly attributed to a 70% growth in both rural settlement and aquaculture/saltpan, and a 30% decline in both agricultural land and wetlands. Third, significant spatial correlation and moderately high spatial clustering were observed, which consisted mostly of mangrove forests, waterbodies, and wetland zones. Both high-high and low-low values increased, but spatial outliers remained unchanged. Conserving agricultural land should be prioritized in future land use plans of CRB to meet the ever-increasing food demands, control natural land conversion, and make land use sustainable.

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“…Thus, food security remains one of the major objectives of the government of Pakistan (Ali et al, 2021), as Pakistan is one of the ten countries in the world being seriously affected by climate change (Mohsin et al, 2022b). It has been suggested by previous studies (Prodhan et al, 2022;Akram et al, 2022;Munir et al, 2021;Hashmi et al, 2021) that Pakistan has a very high probability of having one of the world's highest agricultural productivity and will also be at the highest risk of yield loss with current trends and future climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Long- and Short Run Asymmetrical Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Shar

Bughio

et al. 2022

Preprint

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This study examines the long- and short-run asymmetrical effects of climate change on crop production by analyzing an annual time series from 1990 to 2019. In order to model the long-run and short-run cointegrations of a number of variables across time, as well as their causality directions, an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method was employed. The results of the study were also analyzed using a regression model in order to assess the reliability of the findings. As a preliminary result, a causal relationship between the variables, on a long-term basis, has been established using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study found that crop production and carbon dioxide emissions in the country have a very strong relationship both on a short-term as well as a long-term basis, as well as showing a positive relationship between labor force, fertilizer use, and water availability over the long-term. A long-term analysis of the labor force, fertilizer use, and water availability shows a significant positive correlation between the three variables. As a result of the short-run study, several factors were positively and statistically significant, including carbon dioxide emissions, temperature, labor force, and fertilizer use. There was a significant influence of both climatic and non-climatic factors on Pakistan's crop production based on a paired Granger causality test. Based on the study's conclusions, Pakistan's policymakers must develop agricultural policies, strategies, and plans for the purpose of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, according to the conclusion of the study. Thus, by encouraging environmentally friendly farming methods, the country will be able to increase its efforts toward achieve sustainable agriculture. It is important for the country to promote environmentally friendly farming in order to achieve a sustainable agriculture industry.

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Projection of future drought and its impact on simulated crop yield over South Asia using ensemble machine learning approach

Cited by 57 publications

References 61 publications

Future dry-wet climatic characteristics and drought trends over arid Central Asia

Future dry-wet climatic characteristics and drought trends over arid Central Asia

Monitoring Changes in Land Use Land Cover and Ecosystem Service Values of Dynamic Saltwater and Freshwater Systems in Coastal Bangladesh by Geospatial Techniques

Evaluating the Long- and Short Run Asymmetrical Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

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