Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Murata, Akihiko; Sasaki, Hirokazu; Kawase, Hiroaki; Nosaka, Masaya; Oh’izumi, Mitsuo; Kato, Teruyuki; Aoyagi, Toshio; Shido, Fumitake; Hibino, Kenshi; Kanada, Sachie; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka; Nagatomo, Toshiharu

doi:10.2151/sola.2015-022

Cited by 33 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 17 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Previous studies discussed the high skill of the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) in representing the present climate of Japan, including heavy precipitation frequency, and has since been used in producing high-resolution climate projections for the country (e.g., Sasaki et al 2008;Murata et al 2015). Recently, Cruz et al (2016) found an overall cold (−0.90°C to −0.42°C) and dry (−62.13% to −25.20%) bias for the present climate in the Philippines, which depends on the boundary conditions and convection schemes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Cruz

Sasaki

2017

SOLA

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study evaluates the performance of the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) in simulating the present climate over Southeast Asia to determine its applicability in downscaling climate projections in the region. Simulations from 1989 to 2008 are conducted over the region at 25-km resolution using boundary conditions from the ECMWF ERA-Interim dataset. The topographic effect on rainfall is well represented in NHRCM but can result in wet (dry) biases in the windward (leeward) side of mountains. NHRCM is able to reduce the overestimated rainfall in ERA-Interim, particularly over eastern Philippines and in the Maritime Continent, with improvements in spatial patterns. Both seasonality and daily distribution of rainfall are represented in most regions. On the other hand, there is a tendency to underestimate the number of wet days, especially during the respective wet season of the subregion, and to overestimate daily rainfall intensity. NHRCM also has an overall cold model bias, which reduces the warm bias in ERA-Interim, except for some parts of Indochina during boreal winter and spring. These results indicate the improved representation of present climate in Southeast Asia using NHRCM, and its potential applicability in downscaling climate projections to increase projected climate scenarios for the region.(Citation: Cruz, F. T., and H. Sasaki, 2017: Simulation of present climate over Southeast Asia using the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model. SOLA, 13, 13−18,

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Cruz

Sasaki

2017

SOLA

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The lowest level was 20 m from the ground surface, and the highest level was 19.9 km. Boundary conditions for NHRCM02 were derived from a simulation using NHRCM with a grid spacing of 5 km (NHRCM05; Murata et al 2015). An urban canopy model (Aoyagi and Seino 2011) is used in NHRCM02 (not in NHRCM05).…”

Section: Experiments Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each simulation was forced by boundary conditions provided by the AGCM20 simulations. The four SST fields used were a control field and three other fields (same as Murata et al 2015). The control field (C0) was obtained from the ensemble-mean SST in the late 21st century on the basis of CMIP5 models.…”

Section: Experiments Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Murata et al (2015) conducted ensemble regional climate projections over Japan using the non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) developed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), with a grid spacing of 5 km. Their experiment design allowed them to project future climate change with a range of possibilities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations Using a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model with Urban Canopy

Murata¹,

Sasaki²,

Kawase³

et al. 2017

SOLA

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study investigates future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over Japan by the end of the 21st century using ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario projected by a convection-permitting regional climate model with a grid spacing of 2 km.For all ensemble members, the projected future climate indicates robust increases in the 99th percentile of hourly temperature over all regions of Japan. In contrast, the 99th percentile of hourly precipitation increases over the northern and part of the eastern regions of Japan, particularly on the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan in July. A couple of local-scale areas in Hokkaido are identified as a cause of significant increases in rainfall over this region.Increases in horizontal convergence near the surface and in the middle troposphere are responsible for increased heavy precipitation over a local-scale area of Hokkaido in July. The enhanced convergence near the surface can be attributed to strengthened westerly wind, whereas that in the middle layer can be explained by vertically unstable layers.(Citation: Murata, A., H. Sasaki, H. Kawase, M. Nosaka, T. Aoyagi, M. Oh'izumi, N. Seino, F. Shido, K. Hibino, K. Ishihara, H. Murai, S. Yasui, S. Wakamatsu, and I. Takayabu, 2017: Projection of future climate change over Japan in ensemble simulations using a convection-permitting regional climate model with urban canopy. SOLA, 13, 219−223,

show abstract

“…In this study, we analyzed the data produced by Murata et al (2015), which were calculated by using NHRCM with a 5-km grid spacing. There are 527 × 804 grid points horizontally and 50 layers vertically.…”

Section: Experimental Design and Reproducibility Of The Nhrcmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias Correction of Snow Depth by Using Regional Frequency Analysis in the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model around Japan

Nosaka¹,

Sasaki²,

Murata³

et al. 2016

SOLA

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The 5-km-mesh, Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model was used to simulate snow depths in Japan and to project their changes in the future. The simulated snow depths had large biases, and bias corrections were required to project future snow depths accurately. We developed a new method of bias correction that is accurate and easily implemented for automatic use on a computer. Three classification methods of regional frequency analysis were tested in nine regions of Japan. The classification method based on the second order of L-moments (L-cv) was the best bias correction method among those tested. We checked that this bias correction was useful method for future climate projections by using the test sample estimate. Snow depth in the future climate was projected to decrease by about 50 cm, such that the average snow depth over Japan was about 30 cm in the future climate. The projected decrease in the maximum snow depth was large in the Nagano and Gifu regions and small in the Hokkaido region compared with other regions.(Citation: Nosaka, M., H. Sasaki, A. Murata, H. Kawase, and M. Oh'izumi, 2016: Bias correction of snow depth by using regional frequency analysis in the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model around Japan. SOLA, 12, 165−169,

show abstract

Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Cited by 33 publications

References 17 publications

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations Using a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model with Urban Canopy

Bias Correction of Snow Depth by Using Regional Frequency Analysis in the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model around Japan

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About