Projection of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extreme Events in the Iberian Peninsula Based on CMIP6

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the potential changes in the co-occurrence of strong precipitation and wind events over the Iberian Peninsula using simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 under two scenarios (SSP2 − 4.5 and SSP5 − 8.5). Projected changes indicate a significant regional variability during all seasons. In winter, the western regions are projected to experience an increase in compound events as the century progresses under both scenarios, with a significantly larger area being affected by the end of the century. In spring, summer, and autumn, a general decline in the occurrence of these events is anticipated throughout the century, accompanied by a reduction in the area affected by them. However, in the northwesternmost area (Galicia), an increase in the occurrence of compound events is expected during the spring towards the end of the century, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.