Projection of Cancer Incidence and Mortality From 2020 to 2035 in the Korean Population Aged 20 Years and Older

Hong, Youjin; Lee, Sang-Jun; Moon, Sungji; Sung, Soseul; Lim, Woochul; Kim, Kyungsik; An, Seokyung; Choi, Jeong-Sun; Ko, Kwang-Pil; Kim, Inah; Lee, Jung Eun; Park, Sung Sup

doi:10.3961/jpmph.22.128

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 30 publications

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“…Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, accounting for 11.7% of all new cancer cases in 2020 [ 3 ]. In Korea, the burden of breast cancer has gradually increased over the last decade [ 4 , 5 ]. While endometrial cancer is less common, its incidence also has increased steadily in Korea [ 6 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in metabolic syndrome and the risk of breast and endometrial cancer according to menopause in Korean women

Tran¹,

Kim²,

Park

2023

Epidemiol Health

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OBJECTIVES: This study investigated how changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) are associated with the subsequent risk of breast and endometrial cancer according to menopausal status.METHODS: This cohort study, using data from the National Health Insurance Service database, included women aged ≥40 years who underwent 2 biennial cancer screenings (2009-2010 and 2011-2012) and were followed up until 2020. Participants were grouped into MetS-free, MetS-recovery, MetS-development, and MetS-persistent groups. Menopausal status (premenopausal, perimenopausal, and postmenopausal) was assessed at 2 screenings. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess the association between MetS changes and cancer risk.RESULTS: In 3,031,980 women, breast and endometrial cancers were detected in 39,184 and 4,298, respectively. Compared with the MetS-free group, those who recovered, developed, or had persistent MetS showed an increased risk of breast cancer, with adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of 1.05, 1.05, and 1.11, respectively (p<0.005). MetS persistence was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women (aHR, 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08 to 1.16) but not in premenopausal or perimenopausal women. MetS persistence was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer in premenopausal, perimenopausal, and postmenopausal women, with aHRs of 1.41 (95% CI, 1.17 to 1.70), 1.59 (95% CI, 1.19 to 2.12), and 1.47 (95% CI, 1.32 to 1.63), respectively.CONCLUSIONS: Increased breast cancer risk was associated with recovered, developed, and persistent MetS in postmenopausal women. Meanwhile, increased endometrial cancer risk was found in obese women who recovered from MetS or persistently had MetS, regardless of menopausal status, when compared to MetS-free women.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in metabolic syndrome and the risk of breast and endometrial cancer according to menopause in Korean women

Tran¹,

Kim²,

Park

2023

Epidemiol Health

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A Comparison of Green, Delta, and Monte Carlo Methods to Select an Optimal Approach for Calculating the 95% Confidence Interval of the Population-attributable Fraction: Guidance for Epidemiological Research

Lee,

Moon,

Kim

et al. 2024

JPMPH

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Objectives: This study aimed to compare the Delta, Greenland, and Monte Carlo methods for estimating 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the population-attributable fraction (PAF). The objectives were to identify the optimal method and to determine the influence of primary parameters on PAF calculations.Methods: A dataset was simulated using hypothetical values for primary parameters (population, relative risk [RR], prevalence, and variance of the beta estimator ) involved in PAF calculations. Three methods (Delta, Greenland, and Monte Carlo) were used to estimate the 95% CIs of the PAFs. Perturbation analysis was performed to assess the sensitivity of the PAF to changes in these parameters. An R Shiny application, the “GDM-PAF CI Explorer,” was developed to facilitate the analysis and visualization of these computations.Results: No significant differences were observed among the 3 methods when both the RR and p-value were low. The Delta method performed well under conditions of low prevalence or minimal RR, while Greenland’s method was effective in scenarios with high prevalence. Meanwhile, the Monte Carlo method calculated 95% CIs of PAFs that were stable overall, though it required intensive computational resources. In a novel approach that utilized perturbation for sensitivity analysis, was identified as the most influential parameter in the estimation of CIs.Conclusions: This study emphasizes the necessity of a careful approach for comparing 95% CI estimation methods for PAFs and selecting the method that best suits the context. It provides practical guidelines to researchers to increase the reliability and accuracy of epidemiological studies.

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Projection of Cancer Incidence and Mortality From 2020 to 2035 in the Korean Population Aged 20 Years and Older

Cited by 2 publications

References 30 publications

Changes in metabolic syndrome and the risk of breast and endometrial cancer according to menopause in Korean women

Changes in metabolic syndrome and the risk of breast and endometrial cancer according to menopause in Korean women

A Comparison of Green, Delta, and Monte Carlo Methods to Select an Optimal Approach for Calculating the 95% Confidence Interval of the Population-attributable Fraction: Guidance for Epidemiological Research

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