Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia

Abstract

BACKGROUNDAttitudes to sexual minorities have undergone a transformation in many Western countries in recent decades. With much greater public acceptance, and an increase in policies and legislation to support equality and outlaw discrimination, the need for population statistics on sexual minority populations has grown. However, such statistics remain rare: Only a few sets of population estimates have been produced in a small number of countries, and there are no population projections of which we are aware. OBJECTIVEThe aims of this paper are to introduce a model for producing projections of a national population by sexual identity, suggest ways in which data and conceptual limitations can be handled, and present illustrative population projections for Australia. METHODSAn adapted multistate cohort-component is described, along with various data sources and approaches for preparing plausible projection assumptions. Two illustrative scenarios for the future of Australia's sexual minority population over the 2016-2041 period are presented. RESULTSAccording to the selected scenarios, Australia's sexual minority population is projected to increase rapidly over the coming decades, rising from 0.65 million in 2016 to between 1.25 and 1.57 million by 2041. This growth is generated by sexual minority cohort flow -the gradual replacement of cohorts with lower proportions of sexual minority

Australia's LGBTIQ Research Data Landscape

“…In order to catalogue datasets that include information on SGD individuals, I first conducted a ‘grey’ literature review 1 . I reviewed recent reports and publications (including by government agencies, research centres, and researchers), which had sought to quantify the number of people who identify as LGBTIQ, and their associated reference lists (Qu, Knight and Higgins 2016; ABS 2018; AIHW 2018; Wilson and Shalley 2018; Callander et al 2020; Carman et al 2020; Wilson et al 2020; Wilson, Temple and Lyons 2021). I next reviewed datasets operated and/or funded by ACON, Australia's largest not‐for‐profit LGBTIQ community health organisation, together with their research partners: the Centre for Social Research in Health, University of New South Wales (UNSW); the Kirby Institute, UNSW; the Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University; the Centre for Values, Ethics and the Law in Medicine, University of Sydney; the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre; and Gay and Lesbian Health Victoria (ACON 2021).…”

“…In order to catalogue datasets that include information on SGD individuals, I first conducted a 'grey' literature review. 1 I reviewed recent reports and publications (including by government agencies, research centres, and researchers), which had sought to quantify the number of people who identify as LGBTIQ, and their associated reference lists (Qu, Knight and Higgins 2016;ABS 2018;AIHW 2018;Wilson and Shalley 2018;Callander et al 2020;Carman et al 2020;Wilson et al 2020;Wilson, Temple and Lyons 2021) Finally, I reviewed all datasets currently provided, or available upon request, through government agencies. This included the Australian Bureau of Statistics (via Microdata download or the DataLab), the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, the Australian Institute of Family Studies, and the Australian Government Department of Social Services (via the National Centre for Longitudinal Data).…”

Ageing of the Australian LGBQ population: estimates and projections to mid-century

“…To produce projections of the population by sexual identity, we draw upon new advances in demographic modelling (Wilson et al, 2021). Specifically, we develop a modified multi-state cohort-component projection model in which the adult population, aged 18 years and above, is divided into sexual identity categories, and the childhood population, aged 0-17, is projected separately and is not categorised by sexual identity.…”

“…We calculated identification change rates by age and gender based on reported change in sexual identity between 2012 and 2016 in the HILDA Survey. Due to the small sample size and jagged age schedules of rates, we applied smoothing to the rates using cubic splines (Wilson et al, 2021). Because of the small sample size and uncertainty surrounding these identification change rates by age and gender, they were constrained to a total net identification change number during the calculation of the projections.…”

“…Indeed, researchers, policy makers and community advocates have called for an amelioration of data collections about LGBTQI people (Department of Health, 2017; Australian Association of Gerontology (AAG), 2019; Wilson et al, 2021;Department of Families, Fairness and Housing, 2022). Despite deficiencies in population-level data collections, over the past decade there has been a growing gerontological evidence base of the unique ageing experience of LGBTQI people.…”