Projecting the impact of Covid-19 variants and vaccination strategies in disease transmission using a multilayer network model in Costa Rica

Abstract

For countries starting to receive steady supplies of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the course of Covid-19 for the following months will be determined by the emergence of new variants and successful roll-out of vaccination campaigns. To anticipate this scenario, we used a multilayer network model developed to forecast the transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Costa Rica, and to estimate the impact of the introduction of the Delta variant in the country, under two plausible vaccination scenarios, one sustaining Costa Rica’s July 2021 vaccination pace of 30,000 doses per day and with high acceptance from the population and another with declining vaccination pace to 13,000 doses per day and with lower acceptance. Results suggest that the introduction and gradual dominance of the Delta variant would increase Covid-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions by $$35\%$$ 35 % and $$33.25\%$$ 33.25 % , respectively, from August 2021 to December 2021, depending on vaccine administration and acceptance. In the presence of the Delta variant, new Covid-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions are estimated to increase around $$24.26\%$$ 24.26 % and $$27.19\%$$ 27.19 % , respectively, in the same period if the vaccination pace drops. Our results can help decision-makers better prepare for the Covid-19 pandemic in the months to come.

Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review

“…Regarding the operational characteristics and accessibility to the databases and models employed in the included studies, it was noted that only 16.3% of the references did not engage in mathematical development of the proposed model [ 18 , 20 , 30 , 40 , 43 , 52 , 59 , 62 , 81 , 83 , 90 , 120 , 121 , 131 , 137 , 142 , 151 , 154 , 157 , 167 , 170 , 172 , 173 , 177 , 178 , 188 , 189 , 192 , 194 , 202 , 205 – 208 , 211 , 215 , 217 , 222 , 242 , 245 , 247 – 250 , 254 , 273 , 277 , 285 , 295 , 301 , 305 , 324 , 332 , 334 , 339 , 340 , 351 , 358 , 365 , 372 , 385 , 387 , 390 , 393 , 404 , 417 , 426 ]. The main software utilized was R, accounting for 19.7% of cases [ 27 ,…”

Mathematical and statistical models for the control of mosquito-borne diseases: the experience of Costa Rica

“…Furthermore, the emergency experienced due to SARS-CoV-2 highlighted the value of and expanded opportunities for collaboration between public health authorities and academia to develop modeling tools and utilize them in decision-making for public health measures in Costa Rica. During 2020 and 2021, health authorities, in collaboration with academic institutions and the Pan American Health Organization, implemented a multilayer network model to study the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and analyze hypothetical scenarios ( 10 ). The projections provided by this model, added to other inputs, helped make decisions in public policy and manage the sanitary emergency in the country.…”

What is the optimal country for minimum COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates?

“…The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, is a deceptive virus. Despite the remarkable progress in genetic sequencing and subsequent vaccine development (Kim et al 2020), the world continues to grapple with the ominous threats of rapidly appearing SARS-CoV-2 variants (García et al 2022). Consequently, it is important to investigate the COVID-19 risk factors and their relative impact on country ranking in terms of the anticipated scope of morbidity and mortality.…”