Projecting the effect of climate change on residential property damages caused by extreme weather events

Sin, Isabelle; Sood, Abha; Fleming-Muñoz, David; Owen, Sally

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111012

Cited by 22 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The effects of climate change have become increasingly obvious and disruptive since 1994, with observable increases in extreme weather and climate events including wildfires, flooding, droughts, storms, and heatwaves (Ummenhofer and Meeh, 2017 ). Climate change is projected to increase the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme weather events in the future, with corresponding increases in vector-borne diseases, food and water insecurity, and property damage as the century progresses (Pastor-Paz et al, 2020 ; Rocklöv and Dubrow, 2020 ; Koren et al, 2021 ). In light of these trends, environmentalism is expected to become “one of the central political issues of the next decades” across the political spectrum, including amongst the far right (Rueda, 2020 ).…”

Section: Deep Ecology and Eco-fascism: The Problem Of Hierarchymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cult violence in the New Age was prefigured by the Rajneesh movement in the decade prior. The sanyassins, as its followers were called, frequently had experience with LSD before joining the group as there was significant overlap between psychedelic culture and the movement's spiritual ideals (Palmer and Sharma, 1993). Many sanyassins were apprehended internationally on drug trafficking charges.…”

Section: Psychedelic Cultures Of Authoritarianism and Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

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Right-Wing Psychedelia: Case Studies in Cultural Plasticity and Political Pluripotency

Pace

Devenot

2021

Front. Psychol.

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Recent media advocacy for the nascent psychedelic medicine industry has emphasized the potential for psychedelics to improve society, pointing to research studies that have linked psychedelics to increased environmental concern and liberal politics. However, research supporting the hypothesis that psychedelics induce a shift in political beliefs must address the many historical and contemporary cases of psychedelic users who remained authoritarian in their views after taking psychedelics or became radicalized after extensive experience with them. We propose that the common anecdotal accounts of psychedelics precipitating radical shifts in political or religious beliefs result from the contextual factors of set and setting, and have no particular directional basis on the axes of conservatism-liberalism or authoritarianism-egalitarianism. Instead, we argue that any experience which challenges a person's fundamental worldview—including a psychedelic experience—can precipitate shifts in any direction of political belief. We suggest that the historical record supports the concept of psychedelics as “politically pluripotent,” non-specific amplifiers of the political set and setting. Contrary to recent assertions, we show that conservative, hierarchy-based ideologies are able to assimilate psychedelic experiences of interconnection, as expressed by thought leaders like Jordan Peterson, corporadelic actors, and members of several neo-Nazi organizations.

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Section: Deep Ecology and Eco-fascism: The Problem Of Hierarchymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Psychedelic Cultures Of Authoritarianism and Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

Right-Wing Psychedelia: Case Studies in Cultural Plasticity and Political Pluripotency

Pace

Devenot

2021

Front. Psychol.

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“…We find that a standard deviation unit increase in slope (in degrees) is associated with an increase of 1.458 in the odds of property damage. The role of slope in the likelihood of property damage has also been observed at the national level Pastor Paz et al, 2020) and at the regional level (as reported in Chapter 2). In the 2005 BOP event, rainfall-induced landslides were reported in Otumoetai and Matata (Roseer et al, 2017).…”

Section: Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…The regression coefficient estimate shows that a standard deviation unit increase in the distance to the shoreline decreases the odds of property damage by 0.646. The role of proximity to the shoreline and property damage has also been observed at the national level Pastor Paz et al, 2020). In these two studies, however, distance to the shoreline is positively related to property damage: the closer the more likely properties will experience damage.…”

Section: Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…(2012) use only information on properties that were damaged, where the claim data have been temporally and spatially aggregated in a cross-sectional way. In contrast, Pastor-Paz et al (2020) (Chapter one) exploit the time and space dimension using a longitudinal georeferenced micro-level dataset of insurance claim data. Their data's longitudinal structure permits them to isolate contemporaneous variation of extreme precipitation, while controlling for exposure and vulnerability through the use of location (grid-cell) fixed-effects.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk from extreme precipitation and climate change on New Zealand’s residential property

Pastor Paz

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Three manuscripts form the basis of this dissertation exploring the effect of extreme precipitation and climate change on residential property in New Zealand. The first manuscript investigates the public insurer’s expected future liabilities, given future climate projections. Specifically, it examines the effect of extreme precipitation on direct property damage associated with rainfall-induced landslides, storms and floods. This study applies a fixed-effects panel regression model using claim data linked to extreme precipitation data over 2000-2017 and future climate change scenarios until 2100. The results show that liabilities will increase more if future greenhouse gasses emissions are higher. At the aggregate level, the percent change between past and future liabilities ranges between an increase of 7 to 8% higher in the next 20 years, and an increase between 9 to 25% increase by the end of the century, depending on the greenhouse gases emissions scenario. The second manuscript examines the risk of property damage from landslides associated with extreme precipitation. The focus is on the Nelson region as it displays the highest number of claims and pay-outs relative to its population and residential stock asset, and two thirds of the pay-outs come from a single event. The focus is on this event. This research combines past insurance claim data with geographic and sociodemographic data to estimate probability of damage, which is then combined with property replacement values and damage-ratio information to calculate the expected loses and map the spatial distribution of risk. The study integrates into the risk estimates the impact of climate change on precipitation based on an ‘attribution’ study. The analysis shows that slope and social deprivation play a significant role in the probability of damage. Furthermore, higher expected losses are associated with higher property values. The third manuscript studies the current and future risk of property damage from floods associated with extreme precipitation and climate change. The focus is on the most expensive event on record. This study applies a logistic cross-sectional regression model that exploits spatial variation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (with and without the effect of climate change), while controlling for other factors that might make a property more or less likely to experience damage. The expected monetary losses are calculated by factoring in the likelihood of flood damage derived from the regression model, property replacement values, and property vulnerability (based on flood-depth fragility functions). The results show that highest losses are associated with lowest annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), still, sizeable losses are associated with higher AEPs. In this case, the effect of climate change for different emissions scenarios is too small to cause an economically meaningful increase in risk levels in the next 80 years (2100).

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Mean and extreme precipitation over Aotearoa New Zealand: A comparison across multiple different estimation techniques

Vishwanathan

McDonald

Stone

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of mean and extreme precipitation features over Aotearoa New Zealand (hereafter New Zealand or NZ) in station data and in six merged satellite‐gauge products, five reanalyses and two in situ gridded products over a period of 10 years inclusive (2001–2010). All products show a similar mean precipitation pattern with a clear maximum over alpine regions. However, only the higher spatial resolution datasets capture the details of the west–east gradient across the South Island accurately. For extremes, we used a set of climate indices to examine the wet tail of the precipitation distribution in the different products. The products have significant differences in these indices, especially over the West Coast in the South Island, indicating substantial uncertainty in these gridded precipitation extremes. Overall, MSWEP and BARRA‐R perform well in all the statistical tests, including higher values of the nonparametric Kling Gupta efficiency (NP‐KGE) metric, favouring their utility for capturing the main characteristics of both mean and extreme precipitation across New Zealand.

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Projecting the effect of climate change on residential property damages caused by extreme weather events

Cited by 22 publications

References 20 publications

Right-Wing Psychedelia: Case Studies in Cultural Plasticity and Political Pluripotency

Right-Wing Psychedelia: Case Studies in Cultural Plasticity and Political Pluripotency

Risk from extreme precipitation and climate change on New Zealand’s residential property

Mean and extreme precipitation over Aotearoa New Zealand: A comparison across multiple different estimation techniques

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