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Technology, Growth, and the Labor Market 2003
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4615-0325-5_3
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Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence

Abstract: This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. labor productivity growth in the post-1995 period and presents projections for both output and labor productivity growth for the next decade. Despite the recent downward revisions to U.S. GDP and software investment, we show that information technology (IT) played a substantial role in the U.S. productivity revival. We then outline a methodology for projecting trend output and productivity growth. Our base-case projection puts the rate of trend productivity growth at 2.2… Show more

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Cited by 75 publications
(87 citation statements)
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References 13 publications
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“…The substantial role that information technology played in the U.S. productivity revival has been additionally confirmed by Jorgenson et al (2002) [12] and Daveri (2003). The latter stated that the limited growth-improving effects from information technologies in countries other than the U.S. have happened in the IT-producing sectors, while the IT-using industries have contributed bulk of the productivity gains in the U.S [13].…”
mentioning
confidence: 88%
“…The substantial role that information technology played in the U.S. productivity revival has been additionally confirmed by Jorgenson et al (2002) [12] and Daveri (2003). The latter stated that the limited growth-improving effects from information technologies in countries other than the U.S. have happened in the IT-producing sectors, while the IT-using industries have contributed bulk of the productivity gains in the U.S [13].…”
mentioning
confidence: 88%
“…The labor input data used in the present study was constructed by Professor Yue Ximing in Renmin University, based on the value estimates from the time-series IO tables and data from the household survey of income distributions in China. 2 The methodology used in this study to compile the output, capital, labor and intermediate inputs closely follows that in Ho and Jorgenson (2001), Jorgenson et al (2005) and Jorgenson et al (1987). The present paper provides a short description of the method of calculating the price and quantity index of conventional gross outputs and all inputs.…”
Section: Datamentioning
confidence: 98%
“…Among the more important aggregate (not industry-level) studies are Oliner and Sichel (2002) and Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh (2002, 2003. Although the studies' details differ, at the aggregate level of the national economy the authors attribute approximately three-fifths of the acceleration in labor productivity during the second half of the 1990s to capital deepening and two-fifths to increases in MFP.…”
Section: Empirical Estimates Of Accelerating Aggregate Labor Productimentioning
confidence: 99%