Projecting Monthly Natural Gas Sales for Space Heating Using a Monthly Updated Model and Degree-days from Monthly Outlooks

Lehman, Richard; Warren, Henry E.

doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0096:pmngsf>2.0.co;2

Cited by 16 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…The link between climatic variables and energy use has been widely documented and utilized to explain energy consumption and to assist energy suppliers with short-term planning (Quayle and Diaz, 1979;Le Comte and Warren, 1981;Warren and LeDuc, 1981;Downton et al, 1988;Badri, 1992;Lehman, 1994;Lam, 1998;Yan, 1998;Morris, 1999;Pardo et al, 2002). However, to date few analyses address the longer-term implications of climate change for energy use patterns and investment decisions.…”

Section: Energy Demand Sensitivity To Climate and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

et al. 2005

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Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles.In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.

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Section: Energy Demand Sensitivity To Climate and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

et al. 2005

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“…Most of this HDD-based research utilized an HDD reference temperature of ϩ65°F (ϩ18.3°C), because HDDs are intended to measure the deviation from a "comfortable" temperature. Those studies included Quayle and Diaz (1980), Warren and LeDuc (1981), Guttman (1983), Downton et al (1988), Lehman and Warren (1994), and Heim et al (2003).…”

Section: B Previous Research and The Current Investigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, in both studies, consideration of HDD application to energy consumption analyses was limited to discussion of the potential value of such research. Later, Lehman and Warren (1994) developed a single regression model that Year markers indicate January of each year; both curves contain monthly values.…”

Section: B Previous Research and The Current Investigationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relations between Temperature and Residential Natural Gas Consumption in the Central and Eastern United States

Timmer

Lamb

2007

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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The increased U.S. natural gas price volatility since the mid-to-late-1980s deregulation generally is attributed to the deregulated market being more sensitive to temperature-related residential demand. This study therefore quantifies relations between winter (November-February; December-February) temperature and residential gas consumption for the United States east of the Rocky Mountains for 1989-2000, by region and on monthly and seasonal time scales. State-level monthly gas consumption data are aggregated for nine multistate subregions of three Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts of the U.S. Department of Energy. Two temperature indices [days below percentile (DBP) and heating degree-days (HDD)] are developed using the Richman-Lamb fine-resolution (ϳ1°latitude-longitude) set of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 1949-2000. Temperature parameters/values that maximize DBP/ HDD correlations with gas consumption are identified. Maximum DBP and HDD correlations with gas consumption consistently are largest in the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley region on both monthly (from ϩ0.89 to ϩ0.91) and seasonal (from ϩ0.93 to ϩ0.97) time scales, for which they are based on daily maximum temperature. Such correlations are markedly lower on both time scales (from ϩ0.62 to ϩ0.80) in New England, where gas is less important than heating oil, and on the monthly scale (from ϩ0.55 to ϩ0.75) across the South because of low January correlations. For the South, maximum correlations are for daily DBP and HDD indices based on mean or minimum temperature. The percentiles having the highest DBP index correlations with gas consumption are slightly higher for northern regions than across the South. This is because lower (higher) relative (absolute) temperature thresholds are reached in warmer regions before home heating occurs. However, these optimum percentiles for all regions are bordered broadly by surrounding percentiles for which the correlations are almost as high as the maximum. This consistency establishes the robustness of the temperature-gas consumption relations obtained. The reference temperatures giving the highest HDD correlations with gas consumption are lower for the colder northern regions than farther south where the temperature range is truncated. However, all HDD reference temperatures greater than ϩ10°C (ϩ15°C) yield similar such correlations for northern (southern) regions, further confirming the robustness of the findings. This robustness, coupled with the very high correlation magnitudes obtained, suggests that potentially strong gas consumption predictability would follow from accurate seasonal temperature forecasts.

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“…This paper presents the specific services developed by Météo-France to satisfy the needs of this new market. Lehman et Warren, 1994 ;Colombo et al, 1999 ;Boucher et Crouzille, 2003) ; la vente des biens de consommation est éga-lement très sensible aux conditions météorologiques (Agnew et Palutikof, 1999), de même que la production agricole (Kadioglu et al, 1999).…”

Section: Météo-france Services For the Weather Derivatives Marketunclassified

“…Le paramètre météoro-logique utilisé pour ce type de protection climatique est classiquement le cumul des degrés jours unifiés (DJU, en °C) pendant la période de chauffe (Johnson et al, 1996), chaque degré jour unifié étant calculé de la manière suivante : DJU = max (0 ; 18-Tm) où Tm est la température moyenne quotidienne (considérée comme égale à la demi-somme des températures minimale et maximale quotidiennes). Lehman et Warren (1994) estiment que 95 % de la variabilité des ventes mensuelles de gaz naturel sont corrélés avec les cumuls des DJU.…”

Section: Un Exempleunclassified

L'apport de Météo-France dans le domaine des protections climatiques.

Dreveton¹

2005

Météorologie

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Projecting Monthly Natural Gas Sales for Space Heating Using a Monthly Updated Model and Degree-days from Monthly Outlooks

Cited by 16 publications

References 0 publications

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Relations between Temperature and Residential Natural Gas Consumption in the Central and Eastern United States

L'apport de Météo-France dans le domaine des protections climatiques.

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