Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities

Zhou, De; Yu, Xiaohua; Abler, David G.; Chen, Danhong

doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2017.12.002

Cited by 20 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…Kaimowitz et al, 2004 ). Beef has high income elasticity, so its use will decline when incomes fall ( Gallet, 2010 ), especially at the low-income end ( Zhao et al, 2020 ). Expanding and changing domestic food consumption has been an underestimated deforestation trigger in recent years ( Castro, 2020 ).…”

Section: Land Use and Forest Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coronavirus, macroeconomy, and forests: What likely impacts?

Wunder

Kaimowitz

Jensen

et al. 2021

Forest Policy and Economics

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Much uncertainty persists about how the coronavirus (COVID-19) and its derived crisis effects will impact both the economy and forests. Here we conceptualize a recursive model where an initial COVID-19 supply-side shock hits first the Global North that, mediated by country-specific epidemic management strategies and other (fiscal, monetary, trade) policy responses feeds through to financial markets and the real economy. Analytically we distinguish two stylized scenarios: an optimistic V-shaped recovery where effective policy responses render most economic damages transitory, versus a pessimistic pathway of economic depression, where short-run pandemic impacts are dwarfed by the subsequent economic breakdown. Economic impacts are transitioned from the global North to the South through trade, tourism, remittances and investment/capital flows. As for impacts on tropical forests, we compare the effects of past economic crises to early indicators for incipient trends. We find national income and commodity price effects to be torn between three forces: a contractive-inflationary supply-side shock, deflationary pandemic demand-side effects, and expansive-inflationary monetary and fiscal policy responses. We discuss how global forest outcomes will depend on how these macroeconomic battles are resolved, but also on geographical differences in deforestation dynamics. Reviewing recent fire and deforestation alerts data, as well as annual tree-cover loss data, we find that deforestation-curbing and -enhancing factors so far just about neutralized each other. Yet, country impacts vary greatly. Changing macroeconomic scenarios, such as fading out of huge economic stimulus packages, could change the picture significantly, in line with what our model predicts.

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Section: Land Use and Forest Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coronavirus, macroeconomy, and forests: What likely impacts?

Wunder

Kaimowitz

Jensen

et al. 2021

Forest Policy and Economics

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“…Demand for diversified food is influenced by income rises (Yu and Abler, 2009;Zhou et al, 2014), farm production (Rashid et al, 2011;Kirsten et al, 1998), and better infrastructure (Rahman, 2015…”

Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversification as a means to Improve Household Food Security in Bangladesh

Rehan¹,

Sumelius²,

Bäckman³

2021

The Journal of Developing Areas

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Food security becomes an issue for concern and possible policy response when it points to nutritional deficiencies and access to insufficient food in many developing countries. Over the years, the prime focus has been on self-sufficiency in major cereal production and energy availability for food security in these areas. Diversification in farm production could play a part in improving household nutritional well-being through enhancing economic access to food and increasing the opportunity to consume own production. The aim of this paper is to bridge the research gap by providing quantitative evidence on the impact of farm diversity on household food security, highlighting the nutritional dimension in Bangladesh where rice is considered the major cereal item. In doing this, the authors compare farm households that are very specialized in rice cultivation with more diversified farm households using two different measures of dietary diversity. In addition, two other measures of farm diversification-Simpson's Index of Diversity along with a crop-livestock count variable-have been used in the analysis. The empirical results presented here are based on cross-sectional data collected through a multistage random sampling of 260 farm households in central, northern, and southwestern regions of Bangladesh. The results confirm that farm diversification has a positive and significant influence on food diversity and it therefore improves household food security. Diversification through shifting out of cereal cultivation particularly rice production is found to be an effective and noteworthy approach to enhance food diversity in Bangladesh. In addition, household food diversity is influenced by higher education level, better market access, household size, production per capita, non-farm income diversification, and land size. The study suggests that investment in education and development of infrastructure for better market access will help to boost dietary diversity in Bangladesh. The key policy implication is that farm diversity needs to be encouraged as an important strategy to increase consumption of a varied diet and enhance household food security.

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“…Popkin, 2008; Popkin et al , 2010, 2012; Du et al , 2014; Gordon-Larsen et al , 2014). The NBSC data compared to the CHNS data have significant advantages in terms of national representativeness and survey duration[1], although the NBSC data have been widely criticized for excluding food-away-from-home (FAFH) consumption (Ma et al , 2006; Bai et al , 2010; Seale et al , 2012; Zhou, Yu, Abler and Chen, 2014; Zhou, Liu, Cao, Tian and Wang, 2014).…”

Section: Changing Dietsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gao et al , 1996; Gould and Villarreal, 2006; Huang and Rozelle, 1998; Yen et al , 2004; Zheng and Henneberry, 2009; Seale et al , 2012)[2]. While overall income elasticities are positive and own-price elasticities are negative, the estimated results widely distribute in various dimensions such as study period, focused areas, data level, etc., and are sometime even controversial (Abler, 2010; Zhou, Yu, Abler and Chen, 2014; Zhou, Liu, Cao, Tian and Wang, 2014). As a result, projections for China’s food demand differ significantly.…”

Section: Changing Dietsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, projections for China’s food demand differ significantly. Based on a collection of 143 income elasticity estimates for cereal and 240 estimates for meat and meat products, Zhou, Yu, Abler and Chen (2014) and Zhou, Liu, Cao, Tian and Wang (2014) conducted a meta-analysis. Their findings show that income elasticities for most cereals (general cereals, rice and coarse grains) and all meat products (general meat, pork, poultry, beef and mutton) tend to decline as per capita income increases.…”

Section: Changing Dietsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The changing dietary patterns and health issues in China

Yuan

Seale

Wahl

et al. 2018

CAER

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to offer an overview of dietary transition patterns and a discussion of the food-related health issues in China. Design/methodology/approach The paper builds on a review of the existing literature on food consumption and diet changes in China, and highlights with specific attention to increasing food consumed away from home, the rising demand for fast and processed foods, and the popularizing of western-style foods in Chinese diets. Findings China’s food consumption patterns rapidly transitioned from one in which grains and vegetables dominated to one having more animal products and more diversification. More foods are consumed away from home and in the form of fast and processed. Income growth played and will continue to play a critical role in shifting the structure of food consumption. On the other hand, China is on a fast track from a lean population to one in which being overweight or obese. The associations between health outputs and food transitions, however, are inconclusive. Originality/value The main findings of this study have implications for better understanding the key trends and driving forces of China’s food demand system. Moreover, the results from this review are essential for food-related policymaking in many emerging economies where coexistence of undernutrition, deficiency of micronutrients and overweight and obesity is a common challenge to the society and individual households.

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Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities

Cited by 20 publications

References 41 publications

Coronavirus, macroeconomy, and forests: What likely impacts?

Coronavirus, macroeconomy, and forests: What likely impacts?

Diversification as a means to Improve Household Food Security in Bangladesh

The changing dietary patterns and health issues in China

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