Projecting a spatial shift of Ontario's sugar maple habitat in response to climate change: A GIS approach

Abstract

Canada is the world's largest producer of maple syrup. Syrup production depends on weather and climatic conditions of the sugarbush. However, forest ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. The effect of rapidly changing precipitation and temperature patterns on tree species is of concern as these long‐lived organisms cannot quickly adapt to the new environmental conditions in which they find themselves. As temperatures increase it is expected that there will be a change in species' ranges poleward. This study uses Multi‐Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) weighted sum analysis to project near future (2050) and distant future (2100) suitability maps of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) habitat in Ontario associated with three different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) scenarios. Our maps project an overall decrease in the amount of suitable habitat within the current sugar maple range under the scenarios modelled, which intensifies in the later time period. Furthermore there is a projected shift in central and southern Ontario from a region dominated by suitable habitat to one dominated by unsuitable habitat.

Managing for delicious ecosystem service under climate change: can United States sugar maple (Acer saccharum) syrup production be maintained in a warming climate?

“…The converse of this situation is also apparent in areas projected to decline in habitat that are currently highly productive. Brown et al (2015), via a GIS habitat Table 1. Maple syrup production in 2012 and projected into future according to two scenarios (PCM-B1 and GFDL-A1Fi) and three time periods (2040,2070,2100), assuming that change in habitat corresponds to shifting syrup opportunity.…”

Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning

“…When used to address indirect climate change impacts, actions that accommodate change essentially aim to offset losses in species and ecosystem adaptive capacity in places where humans have increased their impacts, by restoring adaptive capacity in places where humans are reducing their impacts . Forecasts show that suitable conditions for current crops are likely to shift with climate change (e.g., sugar maple and wine), while others predict that currently unsuitable areas will become increasingly suitable, suggesting that agriculture may intensify or shift into these regions . If these shifts eventuate, they will allow for novel opportunities to restore land previously used for agriculture.…”

Improving marine conservation planning in a time of global change

“…Forecasts show that suitable conditions for current crops are likely to shift with climate change (e.g. sugar maple - Brown et al 2015;and wine -Hannah et al 2013), while others predict that currently unsuitable areas will become increasingly suitable, suggesting that agriculture may intensify or shift into these regions . Shall these shifts eventuate, they will allow for novel opportunities to restore land previously used for for water and hydro-electric power in North America is increasingly presenting opportunities to remove dams that impede the movements of migrating salmon, though dam removal still represents a challenging undertaking (Stanley and Doyle 2003).…”