Projected temperature changes in Kolašin (Montenegro) up to 2100 according to EBU-POM and ALADIN regional climate models

Burić, Dragan; Doderović, Miroslav

doi:10.28974/idojaras.2020.4.1

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Considering climate change, mostly aflatoxins and fumonisins are mentioned [ 17 , 77 , 78 ]. Drought stress also induces increased AFB1 contamination [ 79 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Updating the Methodology of Identifying Maize Hybrids Resistant to Ear Rot Pathogens and Their Toxins—Artificial Inoculation Tests for Kernel Resistance to Fusarium graminearum, F. verticillioides, and Aspergillus flavus

Mesterházy

Szieberth²,

Toldine

et al. 2022

JoF

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Resistance to toxigenic fungi and their toxins in maize is a highly important research topic, as mean global losses are estimated at about 10% of the yield. Resistance and toxin data of the hybrids are mostly not given, so farmers are not informed about the food safety risks of their grown hybrids. According to the findings aflatoxin regularly occurs at preharvest in Hungary and possibly other countries in the region can be jeopardized. We tested, with an improved methodology (two isolates, three pathogens, and a toxin control), 18 commercial hybrids (2017–2020) for kernel resistance (%), and for toxin contamination separately by two–two isolates of F. graminearum, F. verticillioides (mg/kg), and A. flavus (μg/kg). The preharvest toxin contamination was measured in the controls. Highly significant kernel resistance and toxin content differences were identified between hybrids to the different fungi. Extreme high toxin production was found for each toxic species. Only about 10–15% of the hybrids showed higher resistance to the fungal species tested and lower contamination level of their toxins. The lacking correlations between resistance to different fungi and toxins suggest that resistance to different fungi and response to toxin contamination inherits independently, so a toxin analysis is necessary. For safety risk estimation, separated artificial and natural kernel infection and toxin data are needed against all pathogens. Higher resistance to A. flavus and F. verticillioides stabilizes or improves feed safety in hot and dry summers, balancing the harmful effect of climate changes. Resistance and toxin tests during variety registration is an utmost necessity. The exclusion of susceptible or highly susceptible hybrids from commercial production results in reduced toxin contamination.

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“…Considering climate change, mostly aflatoxins and fumonisins are mentioned [ 17 , 77 , 78 ]. Drought stress also induces increased AFB1 contamination [ 79 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The global climate models forecasting significant temperature increases [ 17 , 18 ] reported that AFB1 contamination would increase with a 2 °C increase in South Germany throughout the full Carpathian Basin. Other authors reached similar conclusions [ 19 , 20 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Updating the Methodology of Identifying Maize Hybrids Resistant to Ear Rot Pathogens and Their Toxins—Artificial Inoculation Tests for Kernel Resistance to Fusarium graminearum, F. verticillioides, and Aspergillus flavus

Mesterházy

Szieberth²,

Toldine

et al. 2022

JoF

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“…SU is likely to increase in the near future in Croatia as well, especially in the coastal locations (by ~10 days; Brankovic et al ., 2012). RCM simulations show an increase in the number of SU and a decrease in the case of FD in Ukraine (Krakovska et al ., 2021), in Kolasin, Montenegro (Buric and Doderovic, 2020) and in Cluj Napoca, Romania (Ciupertea et al ., 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias‐adjustment of high‐resolution temperature CORDEX data over the Carpathian region: Expected changes including the number of summer and frost days

Torma

Kis

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate model simulations' outputs are prone to biases compared to observations; furthermore, climate projections can be very different in modelling future temperature characteristics. One possible solution for reducing uncertainty and eliminating possible systematic errors within climate projections is the bias-adjustment of the raw climate model data. We used the quantile mapping method for biasadjustment of a mini ensemble consisting of 8-member high-resolution (0.11 ) regional climate model simulations provided by the CORDEX community. As the method requires a reliable observational dataset serving as reference data, we used the quality controlled and homogenized observational dataset: CARPATCLIM.Quantile mapping bias-adjustment technique was applied on the following variables: daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature. We analysed changes in mean temperature characteristics and of climate indices for future periods of 2021-2050 and 2070-2099 with respect to the reference period 1976-2005 for the Carpathian Region. The selected climate indices are based on minimum (frost days, FD) and maximum daily temperature data (summer days, SU). Our biasadjusted RCM results suggest a similar degree of mean temperature change as the raw RCMs' data. Bias-adjusted and raw RCM data project a remarkable annual temperature increase on average under the RCP8.5 scenario (1.4 C and 3.9 C by 2021-2050 and 2070-2099, respectively). The highest temperature increase is likely to occur in summer: it is 4.3 C on average by the end of the 21st century. More pronounced differences were found for the projected changes of the number of summer and frost days based on the bias-adjusted and the raw RCM data. Our results draw attention to the fact that bias-adjusted RCM data are crucial for the provision of regional climate change impact and adaptation studies for the Carpathian Region.

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“…Climate models forecast variable warming scenarios with locally lower or higher precipitation levels [ 36 ]. There are many types of Fusaria -causing ear rot [ 82 , 83 ], but the two most damaging are F. graminearum and F. verticillioides .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We should not forget that the forecasting refers to the preharvest toxin contamination. As A. flavus and F. verticillioides need a higher optimum temperature than the ruling weather conditions secured in middle and western Europe, warmer and dryer summer conditions will increase the risk of aflatoxin and fumonisin contamination [ 36 , 37 ]. The different forecasting models [ 35 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 ] do not consider the resistance of the hybrids but use only the increasing temperatures and other non-plant traits.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Preharvest Natural Infection and Toxin Contamination in Food and Feed Safety in Maize, South-East Hungary, 2014–2021

Mesterházy

Szieberth²,

Tóth

et al. 2022

JoF

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Mycotoxins originating in the preharvest period represent a less studied research problem, even though they are of the utmost practical significance in maize production, determining marketability (within EU limits), and storage ability, competitiveness, and profit rate. In this study, 18–23 commercial hybrids were tested between 2014 and 2021. Natural infection from Fusarium spp. was higher than 1.5%, and for Aspergillus spp. this was normally 0.01% or 0, much lower than would be considered as severe infection. In spite of this, many hybrids provided far higher toxin contamination than regulations allow. The maximum preharvest aflatoxin B1 was in 2020 (at 2286 μg/kg), and, in several cases, the value was higher than 1000 μg/kg. The hybrid differences were large. In Hungary, the presence of field-originated aflatoxin B1 was continuous, with three AFB1 epidemics in the 8 years. The highest DON contamination was in 2014 (at 27 mg/kg), and a detectable DON level was found in every hybrid. FUMB1+B2 were the highest in 2014 (at 45.78 mg/kg). At these low infection levels, correlations between visual symptoms and toxin contaminations were mostly non-significant, so it is not feasible to draw a conclusion about toxin contamination from ear rot coverage alone. The toxin contamination of hybrids for a percentage of visual infection is highly variable, and only toxin data can decide about food safety. Hybrids with no visual symptoms and high AFB1 contamination were also identified. Preharvest control, including breeding and variety registration, is therefore of the utmost importance to all three pathogens. Even natural ear rot and toxin data do not prove differences in resistance, so a high ear rot or toxin contamination level should be considered as a risk factor for hybrids. The toxin control of freshly harvested grain is vital for separating healthy and contaminated lots. In addition, proper growing and storage conditions must be ensured to protect the feed safety of the grain.

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Projected temperature changes in Kolašin (Montenegro) up to 2100 according to EBU-POM and ALADIN regional climate models

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

Updating the Methodology of Identifying Maize Hybrids Resistant to Ear Rot Pathogens and Their Toxins—Artificial Inoculation Tests for Kernel Resistance to Fusarium graminearum, F. verticillioides, and Aspergillus flavus

Updating the Methodology of Identifying Maize Hybrids Resistant to Ear Rot Pathogens and Their Toxins—Artificial Inoculation Tests for Kernel Resistance to Fusarium graminearum, F. verticillioides, and Aspergillus flavus

Bias‐adjustment of high‐resolution temperature CORDEX data over the Carpathian region: Expected changes including the number of summer and frost days

The Role of Preharvest Natural Infection and Toxin Contamination in Food and Feed Safety in Maize, South-East Hungary, 2014–2021

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