Projected near-future changes in precipitation extremes over Anambra-Imo River Basin inferred from CMIP6 HighResMIP

Abstract

The southeastern region of Nigeria is susceptible to flood disasters primarily triggered by extreme precipitation with localized impacts. This study uses the output of High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to investigate seasonal dependent changes in precipitation extremes in the near future (2031–2050) in the Anambra-Imo River Basin, in the southeastern region of Nigeria. Evaluating the models against observation for the 1995–2014 period, it is found that models reproduced the spatial pattern of the observed annual precipitation extremes over the river basin. Results show that in the near future, annual precipitation extremes will be characterized by a robust increase in annual total precipitation amount (PRCPTOT), maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and heavy precipitation (R10mm). The models project a significant increase in PRCPTOT, RX5day, R10mm, and wet-day intensity (SDII) for the June–July–August (JJA) and September–October–November (SON) seasons. The results demonstrate a robust and higher magnitude increase in precipitation extremes during the SON season. Specifically, PRCPTOT, RX5day, R10mm and SDII are projected to increase by up to 46 mm, 24 mm, 1.2 days and 2.4 mm/day, respectively. Whereas during the March–April-May (MAM) season, the HighResMIP suggests that PRCPTOT, R10mm, and SDII will marginally increase over the eastern part of the Anambra-Imo River Basin. Besides, the December–January–February (DJF) season will be characterized by a marginal increase in the precipitation extremes, especially over the southern fringes of the river basin. We note that in the near future, precipitation extremes in the river basin will be characterized by more intense and less frequent precipitation extremes during the JJA and SON, potentially exacerbating flash flooding in the river basin. Hence, the results of this study may be vital for near-term socio-economic planning and policy decisions that will minimize the impact of flood disasters in the Anambra-Imo River Basin.