Projected monthly temperature changes of the Great Lakes Basin

Zhang, Liang; Zhao, Yingying; Hein-Griggs, David; Ciborowski, Jan J. H.

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2018.08.017

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Zhang et al (2019b) reported that average annual temperatures in Ontario have increased by 1.3°C from 1948 to 2016. This warming trend is projected to continue over the remainder of the twenty-first century (Zhang et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact assessment on grape and wine for Ontario, Canada’s appellations of origin

Hewer

Brunette

2020

Reg Environ Change

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This paper assesses the impacts of observed and projected climate changes on key indicators and critical thresholds for grape growth and wine production across the three appellations of origin in Ontario (Canada). The historical analysis is based on local weather station data from Environment Canada and the projections are based on selective ensembles of seasonal global climate model projections, statistically downscaled to create local-daily climate change scenarios. Average growing season temperatures have already been warming and growing degree days are increasing, both at statistically significant rates, and are both projected to continue increasing over the course of the twenty-first century. For Niagara Peninsula and Lake Erie North Shore, these one-time cool climate wine regions have already evolved into intermediate climate wine regions and are projected to transition into warm or even hot climate regions by the 2080s. There is also evidence showing that heat stress has and will likely continue to increase, while freeze damage has and likely will continue to decrease. Pruning and shading are the key short-term adaptation strategies while varietal selection is the key long-term adaptation strategy to minimize risks and maximise opportunities in response to these observed and projected regional climate change impacts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact assessment on grape and wine for Ontario, Canada’s appellations of origin

Hewer

Brunette

2020

Reg Environ Change

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“…Fish populations from high-latitude, low-temperature locales often compensate for slower metabolism and lower growth rates by having more efficient physiological performance than low-latitude populations ( i.e., countergradient variation; (Conover and Present, 1990; Jonassen, 2000; Reist et al, 2006). Lake Superior experiences colder and less seasonal variation in water temperature than Lake Ontario (Calamita et al, 2021; Zhang et al, 2018), and larval cisco from Lake Superior may have more efficient physiological adaptations ( e.g., cardiac and respiratory performance) which could explain the high thermal tolerance at cold incubation temperatures and sensitivity to increased temperatures. Our results suggest research on mechanisms driving the observed differences in CTMax between populations ( e.g., cardiac failure, oxidative damage to tissue, body mass, stress biomarkers, protein denaturation, etc.)…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of warming winter embryo incubation temperatures on larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) survival, growth, and critical thermal maximum

Vinson

2021

Preprint

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Freshwater whitefishes, Salmonidae Coregoninae, are cold stenothermic fishes of ecological and socio-economic importance in northern hemisphere lakes that are warming in response to climate change. To address the effect of warming waters on coregonine reproduction we experimentally evaluated different embryo incubation temperatures on post-hatching survival, growth, and critical thermal maximum of larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) sampled from lakes Superior and Ontario. Embryos were incubated at water temperatures of 2.0, 4.4, 6.9, and 8.9C to simulate present and increased winter temperatures, and hatched larvae were reared in a common environment. For both populations, larval survival and critical thermal maximum were negatively related to incubation temperature, and larval growth was positively related to incubation temperature. The magnitude of change across incubation temperatures was greater in the population sampled from Lake Superior than Lake Ontario for all traits examined. The more rapid decrease in survival and critical thermal maximum across incubation temperatures for larval cisco in Lake Superior, compared to those from Lake Ontario, suggests that Lake Superior larvae may possess a more limited ability to acclimate to and cope with increasing winter water temperatures. However, the rapid increase in growth rates across incubation temperatures in Lake Superior larvae suggests they could recover better from hatching at a small length induced by warm winters, as compared to Lake Ontario larvae. Our results suggest propagation and restoration programs may want to consider integrating natural habitat preferences and maximizing phenotypic variability to ensure offspring are set up for success upon stocking.

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“…More importantly, many Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models do not include credible representations of Great Lakes (Briley et al 2021). Dynamical downscaling using higher-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) has been used to improve on these inadequacies (e.g., Music et al 2015;Notaro et al 2015;Xiao et al 2018;Zhang et al 2019Zhang et al , 2018Zhang et al , 2020.…”

Section: Php)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Projections over the Great Lakes Region: Using Two-way Coupling of a Regional Climate Model with a 3-D Lake Model

Xue

Pal

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Warming trends of the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world’s largest freshwater system. To date, many regional climate models used for the Great Lakes projection either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or only coupled with 1-D column lake models to represent the lake hydrodynamics. The study presents the Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics important for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected CMIP5 AOGCMS, we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces the surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving AOGCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from the atmospheric perspective but also evidenced in accurate simulations of lake surface temperature, and ice coverage and duration. After that, we present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030–2049) and the late century (2080–2099) for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3–2.2 °C by the mid-21st century and 4.0–4.9 °C by the end of the century relative to the early-century (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8–1.9 °C and late-century warming to 1.8–2.7 °C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from −0.4 % to 10.5 % during the mid-century and 1.2 % to 28.5 % during the late-century under different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and early summer when current precipitation is highest and little increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial heterogeneities. The most significant LST increase will occur in Lake Superior. The strongest warming was projected in spring, followed by strong summer warming, suggesting earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter are projected with heat transfer to the deepwater due to strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to be 3–6 % and 8–20 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration will decrease by up to 30–50 days.

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Projected monthly temperature changes of the Great Lakes Basin

Cited by 15 publications

References 28 publications

Climate change impact assessment on grape and wine for Ontario, Canada’s appellations of origin

Climate change impact assessment on grape and wine for Ontario, Canada’s appellations of origin

Effects of warming winter embryo incubation temperatures on larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) survival, growth, and critical thermal maximum

Climate Projections over the Great Lakes Region: Using Two-way Coupling of a Regional Climate Model with a 3-D Lake Model

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