Projected Land Evaporation and Its Response to Vegetation Greening Over China Under Multiple Scenarios in the CMIP6 Models

Wang, Guojie; Wang, Guojie; Li, Shijie; Feng, Ao; Zhan, Mingyue; Jiang, Tong; Su, Buda; Wang, Yanjun

doi:10.1029/2021jg006327

Cited by 18 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 118 publications

(170 reference statements)

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“…Under the pure impact of climate change, the three DGVMs project that LAI and ET are significantly and positively correlated (Figure 9), which is consistent with previous studies (Liu et al., 2016; Lu et al., 2021). This can explain the projected different ET changes in some regions by ORCHIDEE‐MICT and LPJ‐GUESS.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The spatial pattern of trends in global land ET during the last three decades from individual data sets show large differences in directions and magnitudes, but the spatial pattern of the multiyear average is relatively consistent (Fang et al., 2019; Kim et al., 2021; Lu et al., 2021). Although there are observed ET flux data, most of these data are after 2005, and there is a problem of spatial mismatch (<1 km 2 for flux site versus 0.5 × 0.5° for a grid in this study).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service

et al. 2022

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Terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) service is subject to climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (eCO2), however, the relevant processes by which future climate change and eCO2 affect TEWR are poorly understood. Here, we use the factorial simulation experiments from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project to address this research question. The experiments are based on three dynamic global vegetation models forced with the same climate change scenarios. Results suggest that compared to the preindustrial level, during 2070–2099, (a) TEWR change is highly uncertain, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. (b) Climate change will dominate the pattern of future TEWR change compared with eCO2. (c) Precipitation and runoff change will dominate the future TEWR change in various regions, and the direct role of evapotranspiration (ET) on TEWR will be relatively small. (d) eCO2 will mainly affect vegetation dynamics in energy‐limited regions to affect the runoff, and consequently affecting TEWR change. (e) eCO2 will decrease ET and increase the runoff, resulting in a slight TWER change. These findings improve the understanding of the responses of TEWR to future climate change and eCO2.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service

et al. 2022

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“…In addition, the AET dataset derived by CR model is most sensitive to radiation while the least sensitive to wind speed (Ma et al, 2019). A similar result was concluded by Li et al (2021), who pointed out that wind speed has a weaker impact on AET change than precipitation and air temperature in China.…”

Section: Changes In Driving Factors In the Two Aet Trendssupporting

confidence: 70%

“…The changes in ET are associated with many climatic factors, such as surface temperature, solar radiation, humidity, and precipitation (Milly and Dunne, 2001;Li et al, 2021). However, trends of ET and its dominant climatic drivers are subject to the areas and temporal coverage of the study (Feng et al, 2017;Javadian et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The altered drivers of evapotranspiration trends around the recent warming hiatus in China

Sun

Bai

Yang

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study focuses on the trends and the causes of variation in actual evapotranspiration (AET) around the warming hiatus over China by a comprehensive analysis applying various temporal-spatial methods. It is observed that the annual AET showed a different trend around 2000 for China as a whole. By employing segmented regression analysis for detecting warming hiatus points, high temporal inconsistency can be found in eight climatic regions of China. The impacts of meteorological variables on AET were further identified by affecting the intensity and relative change of meteorological factors. AET was highly correlated (p < .01) with solar radiation in the southeast (R = 0.80) and air specific humidity in the northwest areas (R = 0.83). AET changes presented the highest sensitivity to specific humidity in Northwest before 2006 and in north central China after 2003, with sensitivity coefficients of 1.48 and 1.74, respectively. Three variables, including air specific humidity (with an average contribution rate of $17% in the northwest), short-wave radiation and air temperature, can be the main factors that lead to the changes in AET. The specific meteorological factors varied from region to region: the changes in AET can be ascribed to the increased wind and short-wave radiation in north central China and east China, the decreased air temperature in Tibetan Plateau, the increased specific humidity in southeast China during warming hiatus, and so on. After the warming hiatus occurred, the dominant factor of AET trends changed from air specific humidity to short-wave radiation and other factors. Generally, air specific humidity and air temperature have played leading roles in AET trends during the past 30 years.

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“…Certain errors can also be expected for areas with remarkable heterogeneous vegetation cover 34,35 . The CMIP6 data during 2020-2100 used for the LAI data under different scenarios are mainly generated by climate models, which have higher quality than the CMIP5 model, but there is an overestimation of LAI in non-forested regions 36 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased moist heat stress risk across China under warming climate

Zhang

Singh

Shi

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Heatwaves have afflicted human health, ecosystem, and socioeconomy and are expected to intensify under warming climate. However, few efforts have been directed to moist heat stress (MHS) considering relative humidity and wind speed, and moist heat stress risk (MHSR) considering exposure and vulnerability. Here we showed MHS and MHSR variations across China during 1998–2100 using China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System datasets, the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) merged datasets, Gross Domestic Product, population and leaf area index. We detected increased MHS across China under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Specifically, the historical MHS occurred mostly during mid-July to mid-August. We found increasing trends of 0.08%/year, 0.249%/year, and 0.669%/year in the MHS-affected areas under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, respectively. Furthermore, we observed the highest increasing rate of MHSR in Northwest and Southwest China, while the MHSR across Northeast and North China under SSP126 shifted from increasing to decreasing trends. Noteworthy is that the increasing trend of MHSR under SSP585 is 1.5–2.6 times larger than that under SSP245, especially in North and South China. This study highlights spatiotemporal evolutions of MHS and MHSR and mitigation to moisture heat stress in a warming climate.

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Projected Land Evaporation and Its Response to Vegetation Greening Over China Under Multiple Scenarios in the CMIP6 Models

Abstract: Climate warming has significantly changed the global water cycle, particularly the components of land evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation and runoff, in observations and numerical simulations (Durack et al.

Cited by 18 publications

References 118 publications

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service

The altered drivers of evapotranspiration trends around the recent warming hiatus in China

Increased moist heat stress risk across China under warming climate

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Projected Land Evaporation and Its Response to Vegetation Greening Over China Under Multiple Scenarios in the CMIP6 Models

Abstract: Climate warming has significantly changed the global water cycle, particularly the components of land evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation and runoff, in observations and numerical simulations (Durack et al.

Cited by 18 publications

References 118 publications

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service

The altered drivers of evapotranspiration trends around the recent warming hiatus in China

Increased moist heat stress risk across China under warming climate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service