Projected Future Changes in Vegetation in Western North America in the Twenty-First Century

Jiang, Xiaoyan; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00430.1

Cited by 90 publications

(116 citation statements)

References 92 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

103

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Evaluation of potential future climates using daily outputs from GCMs has indeed shown increased overall dryness of forest fuel layers as indicated by FWI System moisture codes (Wotton et al 2010). Also, we have assumed that vegetation/fuel amount and type remains static and we know that this is unlikely (Jiang et al 2013). Future work should use a dynamic vegetation model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The objective of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of fuel moisture to changes in temperature and precipitation and explore the implications under a future climate. We use the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System components to represent the moisture content of fine surface fuels (Fine Fuel Moisture Code, FFMC), upper forest floor (duff) layers (Duff Moisture Code, DMC) and deep organic soils (Drought Code, DC). We obtained weather data from 12 stations across Canada for the fire season during the 1971-2000 period and with these data we created a set of modified weather streams from the original data by varying the daily temperatures by 0 to +5°C in increments of 1°C and the daily precipitation from −40 to 40 % in increments of 10 %. The fuel moistures were calculated for all the temperature and precipitation combinations. When temperature increases we find that for every degree of warming, precipitation has to increase by more than 15 % for FFMC, about 10 % for DMC and about 5 % for DC to compensate for the drying caused by warmer temperatures. Also, we find in terms of the number of days equal to or above an FFMC of 91, a critical value for fire spread, that no increase in precipitation amount alone could compensate for a temperature increase of 1°C. Results from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios suggest that this sensitivity to temperature increases will result in a future with drier fuels and a higher frequency of extreme fire weather days.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There were two cases where two separate droughts were recorded at the same site (drought instances 2, 3, 6 and 7; Supplementary Table 3). There was one study in which results were reported separately for two dominant species, in which case the two species were treated as separate instances (drought instances [18][19][20].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Across a wide range of biomes, drought leads to changes in forest composition, structure, productivity and climate interactions 5,18,19 . Drought has many important consequences for forest communities, as species composition and dominance are shaped by water availability and can change rapidly in response to drought 19,20 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Drought typically had a more detrimental impact on larger trees (red symbols). Records of drought-induced tree mortality 3,18 (small black dots and ovals) and other forest drought response records were reviewed, and those reporting drought impacts on tree growth rate (triangles; n = 13), mortality rate (circles; n = 14) and per cent mortality (squares; n = 31) for multiple diameter classes were included in this analysis. Numbers correspond to drought instance numbers (Supplementary Tables 1-4 Figure 2 | Drought responses of diameter growth rate and mortality rate as a function of tree size.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide

et al. 2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The frequency of severe droughts is increasing in many regions around the world as a result of climate change [1][2][3] . Droughts alter the structure and function of forests 4,5 . Site-and region-specific studies suggest that large trees, which play keystone roles in forests 6 and can be disproportionately important to ecosystem carbon storage 7 and hydrology 8 , exhibit greater sensitivity to drought than small trees 4,5,9,10 . Here, we synthesize data on tree growth and mortality collected during 40 drought events in forests worldwide to see whether this size-dependent sensitivity to drought holds more widely. We find that droughts consistently had a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality rates of larger trees. Moreover, drought-related mortality increased with tree size in 65% of the droughts examined, especially when community-wide mortality was high or when bark beetles were present. The more pronounced drought sensitivity of larger trees could be underpinned by greater inherent vulnerability to hydraulic stress 11-14 , the higher radiation and evaporative demand experienced by exposed crowns 4,15 , and the tendency for bark beetles to preferentially attack larger trees 16 . We suggest that future droughts will have a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality of larger trees, potentially exacerbating feedbacks to climate change.Climate change has been linked to water deficits in many parts of the world, and future climate projections suggest that droughts are likely to increase in severity because of changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation and rising temperature 1,2,14,17 . Across a wide range of biomes, drought leads to changes in forest composition, structure, productivity and climate interactions 5,18,19 . Drought has many important consequences for forest communities, as species composition and dominance are shaped by water availability and can change rapidly in response to drought 19,20 . Drought-induced forest decline results in climate feedbacks including reduced CO 2 uptake, reduced carbon stocks, increased albedo and decreased evapotranspiration 21 . The impact of drought on forest structure and function depends on which trees are most adversely affected; greater mortality of small trees may modify future forest succession whereas mortality of large trees causes disproportionate losses of carbon and ecosystem function 5-7 . It has not been clear whether large or small trees would suffer more under drought stress. Several studies have documented a greater impact of drought on large trees at a single site 4,9,10 , and a synthesis of data from the humid lowland tropics revealed a tendency for greater drought-related mortality increases in large trees 5 , but these patterns have never been systematically reviewed for forests worldwide.Here, we perform a meta-analysis of data from 40 drought events at 38 forest locations worldwide, ranging from semi-arid woodlands to tropical rainforests, to address whether trees of different size (seedlings excluded) respond differe...

show abstract

“…A recent study of the endemic flora of the California Floristic Province by Loarie et al (2008) suggests that under extreme and moderate scenarios of climate change that the suitable habitat for many species native to California will shift from inland to coastal areas, and that coastal species are predicted to undergo northward range shifts. Models projecting vegetation cover change over the next 100 years suggest that in western North America needle-leaf evergreen trees will be reduced by approximately 15% (Jiang et al, 2013). Where the bioclimatic envelope changes but there is no immediate biotic response and the abiotic infrastructure remains intact, systems can initially remain as relicts of the historic system (Hobbs, Higgs, & Harris, 2009).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Managed Migration of Coast Redwoods: Subjectivity of Stakeholders in Oregon’s Land Use Planning Community

Jenkins¹,

Jenkins²

2017

ENRR

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Earth's climate is changing at a faster pace than the slow natural adjustment rates of most species to their rapidly shifting habitat conditions, especially for long-lived tree species, such as the iconic coast redwood Sequoia sempersqvirens. This may leave some species stranded in less than optimal environments, resulting in population extinctions and/or the need for human-assisted migration. However, the implementation of assisted migration does not come without economic, legal, political, ecological, and ethical issues. One of the most important and complex social questions regarding assisted migration is that of the land use planning community in the area being considered. This article explores the subjective beliefs among these stakeholders regarding managed migration of coast redwood trees into suitable habitats in Oregon. Q-methodology was used to structure the complexity of participants' subjective beliefs into a few manageable themes to reveal broader socio-economic and environmental perspectives and shared ways of perceiving and valuing the relationship between social, economic, and environmental concerns. The findings of this study suggest two main factors 1) positively ranked values that align on new perspectives of utilitarian ecological values, and 2) positively ranked values that align on a land based communitarian perspective. This convergence suggests an ecologically aware land management ethos as opposed to the view of favoring human's dominion over nature, and therefore bolsters the potential for the future success of managed migration of coast redwoods into suitable habitats in Oregon given the state's existing land use policy.

show abstract

Projected Future Changes in Vegetation in Western North America in the Twenty-First Century

Cited by 90 publications

References 92 publications

Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications

Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications

Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide

Managed Migration of Coast Redwoods: Subjectivity of Stakeholders in Oregon’s Land Use Planning Community

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About