Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

Tangang, Fredolin; Chung, Jing Xiang; Juneng, Liew; Supari,; Salimun, Ester; Ngai, Sheau Tieh; Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz; Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal; Cruz, Faye; Narisma, Gemma; Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn; Ngo‐Duc, Thanh; Tan, Phan Van; Singhruck, Patama; Gunawan, Dodo; Aldrian, Edvin; Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Nikulin, Grigory; Remedio, Armelle Reca; Sein, Dmitry V.; Hein-Griggs, David; McGregor, John L.; Yang, Hongwei; Sasaki, Hirokazu; Kumar, Pankaj

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2

Cited by 127 publications

(168 citation statements)

References 112 publications

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“…The increase in precipitation in the ENA region in winter simulated by the CORDEX-CORE ensemble is consistent with the results of the NA-CORDEX simulations (Karmalkar 2018). The CORDEX-CORE projections show precipitation increases over Indochina similar to the projections by the 0.22 • COR-DEX-SEA ensemble (Tangang et al 2020). The increasing trend of precipitation for the Maritime Continent is only present in the REMO projections while RegCM shows both increases and decreases.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

et al. 2020

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The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25$$\,\mathrm {km}$$ km (0.22$$^{\circ }$$ ∘ ) versus 50$$\,\mathrm {km}$$ km (0.44$$^{\circ }$$ ∘ )) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

et al. 2020

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“…The convergence of multiple such systems here is likely to provide some buffering and to ensure consistently high precipitation (Spicer, 2017), although the precise future trajectories of the monsoon systems involved would need further investigation. It is nevertheless encouraging to see that changes in rainfall over the key Indochinese section of the region are unlikely to decrease due to anthropogenic climate change, and may in fact increase (Tangang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Southeast Asia as One of World’s Primary Sources of Biotic Recolonization Following Anthropocene Extinctions

et al. 2021

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The plight of Southeast Asia’s animals, plants and ecosystems in the face of unsustainable exploitation and habitat destruction has been illustrated in several recent studies, despite often falling outside the global discourse on global conservation priorities. Here, we collate biogeographic and phylogenetic information to argue that this beleaguered region is one of world’s primary macrorefugia, and possibly its best chance of regaining its natural biodiversity distribution patterns after the current Anthropocene upheaval. The region uniquely combines top diversity values in (a) ancient lineage diversity and (b) cosmopolitan lineage diversity, suggesting that it has acted in the past as a biodiversity museum and source of global colonization. This is at least partly due to the interplay between latitudinal diversity gradients and continental connectivity patterns. However, the peak values in South China/North Indochina for cosmopolitan tetrapods and their sister lineages suggest that a key feature is also the availability of diverse climatic conditions. In particular, the north-south orientation of the mountain ranges here has allowed for rapid recolonization within the region following past climatic changes, resulting in high survival values and overall exceptional relict lineage diversity. From this starting point, global colonization occurred on multiple occasions. It is hoped that, with urgent action, the region can once again fulfill this function.

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“…In Southeast Asia including Thailand, CORDEX-Southeast Asia experiments have been conducted using 25km grid regional climate models (Tangang et al, 2020; see also Supplement Text S1). However, a 25-km resolution is too low to represent the sub-daily precipitation .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential of representing the diurnal cycle of local-scale precipitation in northeastern Thailand using 5-km and 2-km grid regional climate models

Takayabu

Ishizaki

Nakaegawa

et al. 2021

Hydrological Research Letters

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The diurnal cycle of precipitation over northeast Thailand during the Southeast Asian summer monsoon season was examined using non-hydrostatic (5-km grid) and convection-permitting (2-km grid) regional climate models. The results indicate that these fine grid models exhibit a better performance in terms of representing the diurnal cycle of precipitation due to the realistic orographic representation. The models successfully simulated the local circulation corresponding to the intensification of precipitation and were consistent with the satellite-based observed diurnal cycle of precipitation. The model simulation indicated that the convergence area over the mountain on the south of the Khorat Plateau occurred in the afternoon in association with the occurrence of precipitation. The convergence area migrated northward and contributed to the precipitation peak over the plateau during the nighttime. A bias in terms of the amount of precipitation in the 5-km grid model was partially removed through the convectionpermitting 2-km grid model.

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Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations

Cited by 127 publications

References 112 publications

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Southeast Asia as One of World’s Primary Sources of Biotic Recolonization Following Anthropocene Extinctions

Potential of representing the diurnal cycle of local-scale precipitation in northeastern Thailand using 5-km and 2-km grid regional climate models

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